Last summer, not long after the Edmonton Oilers acquired top prospect Ike Howard from the Tampa Bay Lightning, I looked for comparable players who had also played in the NCAA. Finding comparable players can give us an idea about a player’s future, and it’s a fun exercise in projecting prospects to the NHL.Last August, the most comparable players who went on to success in the NHL were Jimmy Snuggerud, Matt Coronato and Adam Gaudette. All three men posted similar numbers at the same age in the same league. One year later, does that group of comparable players remain a match? Who’s closest to Howard’s first year in the AHL? Here’s a look.Last year’s comparablesHoward was 21 last season and spent most of the year with the AHL Bakersfield Condors. He scored well, posting the top goals per game total among qualified rookie forwards. Here’s a look at Howard as an AHL rookie compared to the group we identified one year ago in each of their 21-year-old seasons:PlayerGoals-GPShots-GPShooting PctIke Howard0.513.215.9Matt Coronato0.373.410.6Adam Gaudette0.362.812.8All numbers via theAHL.comSnuggerud spent his entire age-21 season in the NHL and flourished (21-30-51 in 70 games with the St. Louis Blues). Howard did start the season in the NHL, but was not able to find the range offensively (2-3-5 in 29 games) with the Oilers.Based on summer 2025 comparable players, the closest match for the 2025-26 season is Coronato. Like Howard, Coronato saw NHL action (3-6-9 in 34 games with the Calgary Flames) but was more productive in the AHL. He would thrive in the NHL in his second pro season, scoring 24 goals in 77 games during the 2023-24 campaign.Howard runs far enough past Coronato in this look at AHL numbers at 21 to suggest there may be another gear. One thing we cannot know is how much opportunity dictated Snuggerud’s impressive season. The Blues are a team looking to rebuild in a hurry, so Snuggerud would have had room to wheel in a way that was not available to Howard. The two men may be closer in ability than it appears today. For now, Coronato is the best comp for Howard.This year’s comparablesHoward led rookies in goals per game in the AHL last year, and by definition, it would be difficult to find a comparable from the 2025-26 campaign. Going back to 2021-22 and using players who were 21 in the AHL, we find Howard is an outlier.PlayerGoals-GPShots-GPSh PctJonathan Lekkerimäki0.623.517.8Ike Howard0.513.215.9Pavel Dorofeyev0.43314.4Samuel Fagemo0.432.219.9Josh Doan0.422.417.2All numbers via theAHL.comHoward is shy of Vancouver Canucks forward Jonathan Lekkerimäki, and it’s wildly unfair to expect his career trajectory to match the accomplishments of Pavel Dorofeyev. After that, we’re left with players who didn’t score at the same levels as Howard and didn’t have the same pedigree.The takeaway from this exercise from the 2025-26 numbers: Howard stands out in positive and negative ways. The positive comes from the fact that there aren’t many like him in the last several years. The negative comes from the fact that he was 21 and in the AHL as a freshman. The list of forwards who spent most of their 21-year-old season as productive NHL players is significant. The group was led by Snuggerud, who we’ve established is on a more promising trajectory than Howard. Also flourishing at 21: Matt Savoie, Fraser Minten, Ryan Greene and Danila Yurov.