Michigan State may be facing another uphill battle for bowl eligibility.ESPN recently released its computerized preseason projections for the 2026 college football season from its Football Power Index (FPI). If the rankings are any indication, there is a chance it could be another long season for the Spartans:Basics of ESPN's ProjectionsApril 18, 2026; East Lansing, Mich.; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Alessio Milivojevic (11) drops back during MSU's "Spring Showcase" at Spartan Stadium. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SIThe basic thing is that FPI doesn't think that MSU will make a bowl game this season, which would be the fifth year in a row for the program, and it may not be all that close. Michigan State's projected record at the moment is 4.6-7.4. That leaves only a 32.7% chance for the Spartans to get to that six-win plateau and make a bowl game. If you're the really optimistic type, FPI gives MSU a 0.7% at making it to the 12-team College Football Playoff.April 18, 2026; East Lansing, Mich.; Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald watches the action going on during MSU's "Spring Showcase" at Spartan Stadium. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SIESPN's model actually thinks Michigan State has regressed a bit this offseason. The Spartans finished the 2025 season with a +0.8 rating, despite going just 4-8. MSU's rating is now just +0.3 entering the season. The only other Big Ten teams rated lower are Rutgers (+0.2) and Purdue (-0.9).Michigan State is also considered the favorite in only three of its games right now. Two of those games are MSU's "buy" matchups against Toledo and Eastern Michigan in Weeks 1 and 2. The only Big Ten matchup favoring the Spartans is the home game against Northwestern on Oct. 17.Game-By-Game FPI Odds of VictoryMichigan State's Jordan Hall, right, stops Kai Rios after a catch during the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectSept. 4 vs. Toledo: 65.4%Sept. 12 vs. Eastern Michigan: 90.7% (season-high)Sept. 19 @ Notre Dame: 3.2% (season-low)Michigan State's Alessio Milivojevic wars up before the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectSept. 26 vs. Nebraska: 32.1%Oct. 3 @ Wisconsin: 30.7%Oct. 10 vs. Illinois: 38.0%Oct. 17 vs. Northwestern: 52.6%Oct. 24 @ UCLA: 37.6%Nov. 7 @ Michigan: 11.8%Michigan State's Cam Edwards runs the ball during the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectNov. 14 vs. Washington: 32.9%Nov. 20 vs. Oregon: 6.9%Nov. 28 @ Rutgers: 44.0%More Takeaways From FPIMichigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on during spring football practice on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectGoing off the computer rankings, that season opener against Toledo may be a lot more important than people think. MAC schools are supposed to be relatively easy opponents, but these rankings suggest Toledo could be a real challenge for Michigan State. The Rockets, despite having a new coach themselves, are the highest-rated team in the MAC.Still, the fact that Toledo's 34.6% chance of victory is higher than MSU's in six of its games certainly doesn't exactly inspire much optimism. Not being a significant favorite in any conference game is another thing in itself.Sep 7, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; A detailed view of Michigan State Spartans helmet on the field before the game against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters ConnectThe Spartans didn't even draw a particularly difficult Big Ten schedule this year. They only play two of the seven best teams in the conference this season, at least according to FPI. One of those top-seven teams is Michigan, a rivalry certainly worth protecting. Notre Dame is also an important rivalry, but scheduling the Fighting Irish is much more voluntary, and MSU will be an overwhelming underdog when it goes into South Bend in Week 3.Overall, this probably isn't the year to expect a total turnaround. Michigan State isn't really in a position to rush Pat Fitzgerald's process, anyway -- it's going to be paying about $30 million in buyout money through the 2030 season to Jonathan Smith. April 18, 2026; East Lansing, Mich.; Michigan State Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald patrols the field during his team's "Spring Showcase" at Spartan Stadium. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SIProgram revivals can happen quicker these days with the transfer portal, but by hiring Fitzgerald, a more old-school coach with a more old-school roster-building philosophy, MSU should probably be willing to accept a slightly longer process. Frankly, that's how I felt about Smith as well, but things were dire enough during the 2025 season that moving on was in Michigan State's best interest.What MSU's Path to Bowl Could Look LikeSo, how could the Spartans potentially end their bowl drought this fall? Well, the non-negotiables are probably those three games where Michigan State has a >50% chance of victory. What absolutely must happen, though, is a 2-0 start against Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Losing to a MAC team, even perhaps a good one, is still humiliating. Especially with that game against Notre Dame coming up after it, it would be an early-season stumble nearly impossible to overcome.Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on during the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectMSU will have to find three, perhaps four, wins somewhere else. Losing that Northwestern game is survivable, though that type of loss would probably be tough for Fitzgerald individually. The good news is that a good chunk of the schedule is winnable. Michigan State should have a fighter's shot against Nebraska at home, Wisconsin on the road, Illinois at home, Washington at home, and Rutgers on the road.You never know what could happen in The Big House. What if Oregon sleepwalks into East Lansing for a Friday night game that is sandwiched between games against Michigan and Washington? The goal in the Big Ten is probably a 4-5 record. There are no easy wins on the conference schedule, but getting four victories in nine tries is not an impossible task.Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollow