CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT) forecasts renewed war in the Middle East will heighten economic uncertainty in the second half of the year, while intensifying the global trade war.Although concerns over the Middle East's impact on energy markets have eased, attention has shifted to the global trade war, said Amonthep Chawla, chief economist at CIMBT, as the bank monitors the potential use of Section 301 measures by the US, which were previously imposed on China, to pressure US trading partners.
Despite these conflicts, the bank's research centre expects global oil prices to remain less than US$100 per barrel, unlike the spike recorded the previous quarter. Brent crude oil is forecast to average $84 per barrel this year.
A second phase of the global trade war could weigh on Thai exports in the second half of the year. However, the artificial intelligence investment cycle is expected to continue supporting the country's exports.
CIMBT research forecasts Thai export growth of 10.5% this year, while the economy is projected to expand by 2%.
Although Thai GDP exceeded expectations by gaining 2.8% in the first quarter, economic momentum is expected to soften over the remainder of the year due to the impact of global conflicts and trade uncertainties.
