It seems like you can wager on almost anything these days through prediction market platforms, from who will win the World Cup and the upcoming midterm elections to today’s weather and even military operations. Soon, you will also be able to bet on the success of potentially lifesaving experimental drugs. Kalshi announced Thursday that it is launching a pilot of prediction markets tied to clinical-trial outcomes and decisions made by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Prediction markets allow users to buy contracts based on whether they believe a future event will happen. The price of a contract reflects the market’s estimated probability of that outcome. Both Kalshi and its competitor, Polymarket, have previously offered some health-related contracts, including bets on when a drug might get regulatory approval. However, these new markets will focus more specifically on whether a clinical trial meets its primary endpoint, the main outcome researchers designed the study to measure, or whether the FDA approves a drug for a particular medical use.
Kalshi is pitching the markets as a way to make information about drug development and a treatment’s chances of success more publicly available. The company argues that this info is typically kept behind closed doors and, once made public, often comes with some level of corporate spin.
