As President Donald Trump has tried to sell the Iran war to a skeptical public, he has repeatedly returned to one particular talking point: that Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal was a disaster, and he’s going to produce something much better.

In fact, Trump has mentioned Obama’s nuclear deal more than three dozen times since the war began, according to a CNN review of Roll Call’s Factbase transcripts.

A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll has some very bad news for Trump on that front.

It finds just 23% of Americans think Trump will be able to unveil a better Iran deal than Obama did back in 2015. And 37% — a 14-point split — wagered that Trump would produce a worse deal.

Another 12% expected the deals to be “about the same,” while the rest didn’t offer a view.