Forrester Global Sovereignty Forecast: Despite Rising Geopolitical Tensions, Technology Sovereignty Will Advance Slowly Through 2030
China and the US will remain leaders in technology sovereignty, leaving most European and midsize countries dependent on external alliances to close capability gaps
According to Forrester’s (Nasdaq: FORR) Global Sovereignty Forecast, 2025 To 2030, global technology sovereignty — a country’s ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently of foreign governments’ influence — will evolve slowly over the next five years. The average tech sovereignty score across all 14countries assessed (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US) is expected to rise only minimally, from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030. China and the US lead the pack, recording the highest overall tech sovereignty scores at 82% and 79%, respectively. Both countries are expected to maintain their lead over the next five years, underscoring that tech sovereignty will remain concentrated among a small number of geopolitical and economic powers. To close capability gaps and reduce critical technology dependencies, other countries will need to rely on strategic partnerships and alliances.
