The Toronto Blue Jays entered this season basking in the glow of a World Series run. That’s merely history at this point.The Jays are now in the trenches of the American League coming out of the All-Star break, hovering outside the postseason picture, sitting below .500 and occupying last place in the AL East. If Toronto is to reach even 85 wins, which might not even be enough for an October spot, it’ll need to post a 40-26 record down the stretch. That’s a 98-win pace.“We’ll see a lot about ourselves when the break is over,” manager John Schneider said.Either the Jays’ best baseball is yet to come, or there won’t be an October encore. Here are three storylines to watch during their second half:Three weeks to determine a trade deadline directionMost years, a team six games below .500 at the All-Star break would be a clear trade deadline seller. But not in 2026, with the AL playoff picture messier than a college dorm room. After Sunday’s 5-4 loss in San Diego, the Jays sit just 2 1/2 games out of the AL’s final wild-card spot.Toronto will likely have to lock in on a plan by July 29, four days before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. It has 13 games between now and then. If the Jays go 8-5 or better in that stretch, they’ll likely buy. Anything worse and it could be time to sell.The Jays have been stuck in the mushy middle for months, a dangerous and difficult place to be. They’ve got to climb out of it before August, or this roster will lose some key pieces.Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. find it in the second half?Baseball is a team sport. No individual player can call for the ball in the post or draw up a play for themselves. Still, the fate of Toronto’s 2026 season sure seems to rely on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more than anyone else.The Jays have a 66 percent win rate in games when Guerrero homers. The issue is there have been only six such games. His average (.252) and OPS (.703) would both be the lowest of his career.Toronto’s first baseman owns a higher OPS in the second half throughout his career, though. He posted a .901 OPS after the All-Star break last year, following a .796 mark in the first half. There was an even bigger jump in 2024, from .818 to 1.127.More than ever before, the Jays need second-half Guerrero. They need more than a 12 percent increase in production, too. He opted out of the All-Star Game for the first time in his career and took the four-day break to rest. We’ll see if a different version arrives back in Toronto.Do rotation vets have anything left?Toronto’s rotation is getting by on the back of three pitchers. Dylan Cease is a Cy Young Award candidate, Kevin Gausman is eating innings despite a slight step back in production, and Trey Yesavage owns a 3.72 ERA, even with sporadic command. After that trio, and a few Spencer Miles outings, it’s been tough sledding for Toronto.The Jays hoped previous Cy Young Award winners Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer could bolster the rotation, mitigating José Berríos’ injury risk and covering for random events like Cody Ponce’s season-ending knee injury. The vets haven’t brought much stability, though.Bieber’s best start since his long-delayed 2026 debut included two runs allowed in 4 2/3 innings against the Padres last week. Scherzer owns a 10.23 ERA on the year and has made more minor-league rehab starts than big-league outings. These are two of baseball’s most accomplished starters over the last decade, and that earns them rope. But eventually they have to pitch well.The Jays hope Bieber will continue to improve as he regains command and feel for his slider throughout the year. They hope Scherzer still has a little juice left in the tank in his age-41 season. In the second half, Toronto will find out if those hopes are based in reality. Otherwise, the team will have to thank the veterans for their contributions and turn to young Triple-A starters like Chad Dallas, CJ Van Eyk and Jake Bloss instead.