It’s easy to look at the last two years of The Open Championship and conclude only the top few golfers can win it. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler won as the betting favorite at 6-1 last year at Royal Portrush, and Xander Schauffele — ranked No. 3 at the time — won at 12-1 in 2024 as the second favorite. So we should just take a top golfer this week, right?As ESPN’s Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friends.” Rewind to 2023 when Brian Harman authored a surprise victory at Royal Liverpool at 125-1 odds. In 2019, Shane Lowry won at 80-1, the same long odds Zach Johnson had for his victory in 2015.Ok, so is The Open more likely to give us a long-shot winner? History says: yes.Going back over the last 20 editions of each major championship, The Open ranks third of four in average odds of the winner.Average odds of last 20 winnersMasters44.4 to 1U.S. Open50.6 to 1Open Championship51 to 1PGA Championship55.3 to 1While The Open has seen Tiger Woods go back-to-back at odds shorter than 5-1, the two years before that produced two of the biggest long shots in major championship history. Ben Curtis (2003) and Todd Hamilton (2004) were listed anywhere from 200-1 to 500-1, depending on the sportsbook, while some books didn’t even have them on the board. They remain two of the longest-priced major champions ever.
History shows long shots have won big at The Open Championship. Are we in for another shocker?
This major has been dominated by big favorites recently, but history says otherwise. Here are some names to keep an eye on this week.
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