Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recruitment programs are reportedly failing to compensate for the rising Russian casualty rate amid costly advances in Ukraine. The Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed the necessity that Ukraine receive binding security guarantees as part of a larger peace plan and reiterated the members’ commitment to participate in peace negotiations. The Kremlin continues to reject security guarantees for Ukraine and seeks to deny European participation in peace negotiations on Ukraine. Ukraine’s Western partners continue efforts to boost Ukraine’s air defense umbrella, particularly to combat Russian ballistic missiles. France and Italy granted Ukraine licenses to produce Franco-Italian glide bombs and French SCALP missiles in Ukraine, as Ukraine’s partners continue efforts to boost Ukraine’s own defense industrial base (DIB). Ukrainian forces struck the Salavat Oil Refinery on the night of July 13 to 14, the only major Russian refinery that Ukrainian forces had not previously struck in 2026. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces launched eight Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, two Kh-59/69 guided cruise missiles, and 135 drones against Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.