See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred SourceBy DAVID WILCOCK, DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR Published: 09:25 BST, 14 July 2026 | Updated: 09:36 BST, 14 July 2026
Labour is on course to retain the Manchester mayoral by-election created by Andy Burnham's return to Westminster with Reform losing votes to the hard Right.A new poll shows Bev Craig is likely to replace Mr Burnham by picking up 38 per cent of the vote in the first round and beat both the Greens and Reform in a second-round run-off.Unlike the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system used the last time the mayoralty was contested in 2024, this time it will revert to the supplementary vote system, which allows voters to vote for a second, alternative party.These votes are counted if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of votes in the first round, triggering a second round of voting. The Find Out Now poll shows Labour would beat the Greens 64-36 in the second round and against Reform, they'd win 66-34. The Greens are predicted to finish second on 22 per cent after the first round, up from a distant fifth two years ago, showing how politics is fragmenting.Reform, which had hopes of stealing the mayoralty from Labour, are forecast to finish third on 19 per cent, with the party focusing on the Clacton by-election to retain Nigel Farage's Westminster seat.But in another sign of the fraying nature of politics Rupert Low's hard right Restore party is forecast to come fourth on 9 per cent, a point ahead of Kemi Badenoch's Tories, who finished second in 2024, on 8 per cent.
