American one hundred dollar bill and Indian paper currency banknote a backgrounds.

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suman bhaumik

The rupee closed 29 paise weaker on Monday at a four-week low, weighed down by rising crude oil prices and FPI-related dollar outflows amid escalation in the West Asia war.The Indian currency closed at 95.62 per US dollar against the previous close of 95.33. Intraday, it tested a high/ low of 95.58/95.86 per USD, per CCIL data.Brent crude oil price rose to $79 per barrel level from previous week’s $76 level even as the US and Iran attacked each others strategic assets in the West Asia war, which has been on since February 28, 2026.Foreign portfolio investors pressed on the sell button in the Indian equity markets. They net sold equities to the tune of $331 million, per NSDL data.Kunal Sodhani, Head of Treasury, Shinhan Bank India, observed that the rupee is currently being influenced by a combination of global and domestic factors – elevated crude oil prices continue to increase India’s import bill and demand for US dollars, while a resilient U.S. dollar, supported by expectations around Federal Reserve policy and higher Treasury yields, has kept emerging market currencies under pressure.“Geopolitical tensions have further dampened global risk sentiment, resulting in cautious foreign portfolio flows. On the domestic front, the RBI remains focused on containing excessive volatility through calibrated intervention, while the gradual reduction in its forward short book has enhanced its flexibility to manage the currency,” he said.At the same time, India’s trade deficit, corporate dollar demand, and external payment obligations continue to create structural demand for dollars.Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said the Rupee declined sharply amid a surge in crude oil prices and renewed geopolitical concerns.“As a major oil-importing currency, the Rupee came under pressure and emerged as the weakest performer among Asian currencies. In the near term, spot USDINR is expected to consolidate within the 94.90 to 96.00 range,” he said.Published on July 13, 2026