The rupee opened 39 paise weaker on Monday as the escalation in the West Asia war had its ripple effect on global commodity and financial markets, hardening crude oil prices and weighing on the equity markets.The Indian currency opened at 95.72 per US Dollar against the previous close of 95.33. Currently, it is trading at 95.75.Brent crude oil has now risen to $78 per barrel from last week’s $76. Equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty declined about 0.82 per cent and 0.75 per cent, respectively, so far today.“Before this (West Asia) conflict began, when crude was trading around 73 dollars a barrel, the rupee was near 91. When oil spiked to a high of 120, the rupee touched 96.80. Now, even with crude having cooled back to around 76 dollars last week, the rupee has recovered only about 1.6 rupees and continues to trade near the 95 mark.“The pattern is clear. The rupee reacts far more sharply to a rise in oil prices than it recovers when oil falls, and today’s fresh spike to 78 dollars fits squarely into that pattern,” said Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Adv.In the current situation, most of the factors at play, rising crude oil prices, a firmer DXY (dollar index), and the RBI refilling its reserves, all point towards the rupee remaining under pressure, he added.Pabari noted that on the technical charts, the 95.80 to 96.00 zone is a strong resistance area, and this level is expected to break soon. Once it does, the next 50 to 80 paisa move is likely to happen fast. Overall, the rupee is expected to head towards the 96.30 to 96.50 levels over the coming days.Published on July 13, 2026