This World Cup, a bunch of people decided to gamble millions on whether soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo would cry during a match.
The bet, which happened on Polymarket, isn’t weird for the wild world of prediction markets. Like whether aliens will be announced by the US government, whether a coup attempt will take place in Russia — even whether the earth is flat. (One trader lost $915 betting against the earth’s sphericity).
So traders looking to get an edge began closely examining Ronaldo’s long, storied career for evidence of crying. There were tears of despair, like from Portugal’s heartbreaking 2022 World Cup loss, in which he kneeled on the grass while weeping. There was also a record of happy tears, like this year, when he helped his club secure the Saudi title for the first time during his tenure.
This week, the odds had settled at around 70% favoring tears.
Monday’s match was to be Ronaldo’s last of this World Cup, ending in heartbreak for the 41-year-old soccer legend, with Portugal falling to Spain 1-0. It could be his final World Cup match ever.
