Falling out with Donald Trump is not a situation most world leaders want to find themselves in, but for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a very public and, at times, petty spat with the US president could end up playing well for her.Meloni was considered one of the US Commander-in-Chief's closest allies in Europe, and some had even dubbed her the "Trump whisperer".But now the pair does not talk, Meloni has been the subject of Trump's tirades and social media memes, and at this week's NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara, the leaders avoided each other.Far from being concerned about the deterioration of an important diplomatic relationship, a popular view in Italy is that Meloni thinks this could help her domestically.Italians will vote in their next general election next year.Recent opinion polls show a majority of Italians no longer find the US to be a reliable ally."Many people suspect in Italy that she actually wanted a public break-up in order to say, 'I'm against President Trump,'" Gianni Riotta, vice chair of the Council for the United States and Italy, told the ABC.Giorgia Meloni and Donald Trump initially had a strong relationship. (AP: Evan Vucci)Riccardo Alcaro, head of research at the International Affairs Institute in Rome, said he thought the fallout was less a geopolitical issue and more "strategic electioneering on the part of Meloni"."Meloni has found herself in a situation in which her proximity to Trump has become an electoral liability," Mr Alcaro told the ABC.How it started and how it's goingTo understand how bad things have become between Trump and Meloni, it is useful to start by looking at how good things were.The Italian prime minister, who is the leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy party, was considered a natural, transatlantic ally by the American president because of their shared conservative values.After Meloni's decisive election victory in late 2022, Trump sent his warm congratulations and she was the only EU leader invited to his second inauguration ceremony in January 2025.Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni chat at Mar-a-Lago. (Supplied: Italian government via Reuters)Trump also invited her to his Mar-a-lago estate in Florida, where he told members that she was a "fantastic woman" who had "really taken Europe by storm".She, in turn, was a vocal supporter of the Trump administration.The relationship began to sour in March this year, in the early days of the US-Israeli war on Iran.While Meloni did not openly condemn the strikes like some other European leaders did, she did not support them either.Then, when Italy denied the US permission for its military aircraft bound for the Middle East to land at the Sigonella air base in Sicily, the president knew where she stood.A real turning point came when Pope Leo condemned the war and Trump lashed out at the pontiff in response, calling him "weak on crime" and "terrible on foreign policy".It was unprecedented for a world leader to publicly criticise the pope.Meloni called it out, but did so cautiously."She did not even mention [Trump] by name, and did not actually criticise him, she just said the US president's words with regards to the pope were 'unacceptable'," Mr Alcaro said."Because if you are an Italian prime minister, and especially if you're an Italian prime minister who has construed her political identity in deeply civilisational terms, and those terms are mostly about tradition and the Catholic religion, silence is not an option."Trump hit back, accusing Meloni of "lacking courage".He also did an interview with an Italian newspaper with more criticism aimed at the prime minister."Of course, with President Trump, either you are an ally or you are his enemy," Mr Riotta said."So once President Trump felt that he was betrayed, the fight erupted."'Italy and I do not beg'Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni on the sidelines of the G7 summit in June. (Reuters: Italian Prime Ministry)During the G7 summit in Évian-Les-Bains in France last month, things went from bad to worse.Trump accused Meloni of "begging" to have her photo taken with him, and said he only posed for the picture because he "felt sorry" for her.She fired back by posting a social media video saying that the president's comments were "completely fabricated" and that she was "stunned" by his behaviour."I don't know why the president of the United States behaves this way toward his own allies," Meloni said in the video."There's one thing he must remember: Italy and I do not beg."The US president also criticised the Italian leader in a long social media post, writing, "She is doing poorly in Italy with her level of popularity, possibly because she turned down the United States of America, a Country that truly loves and protects Italy, when it came to denying Iran from obtaining or developing a Nuclear Weapon.""She wouldn't even let us use Italy's landing strips or runways, a great logistical inconvenience, and this despite the fact the U.S. contributes hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year to protect Italy, and other 'so-called' NATO Allies."Now, after the United States defeated Iran militarily, she wants to be friends again in order to get her 'numbers up.' No thanks!!!"Then a few days before the NATO summit there was another online insult from the Commander in Chief — a photograph of Meloni looking up at him, with a caption that said "RESTRAINING ORDER NEEDED"."The guy knows how to hold a grudge," Mr Alcaro said."But let me be clear in my opinion, that the root cause of this rift has not really anything to do with Iran or other significant matters of substance."Meloni's sin in the eyes of Trump is [she] has failed to show Trump the due deference that a subordinate has to show her boss, which Meloni had done very diligently up until that time."Domestic challenges for MeloniMr Alcaro said that heading into next year's election, this sort of stance on the international stage could help the Italian PM.Meloni has been facing serious challenges at home with a recent referendum loss on judicial reform she had championed, an emboldened opposition, and the rise of a political party further to the right that has been trying to lure her supporters away.Mr Alcaro said her "judgement of being so close to Trump was increasingly being questioned" too."So at this point, by standing up against Trump very publicly, including by publishing a video message on social media, Meloni was trying to send a signal to the Italian general public," Mr Alcaro said."She is showing that she was close to Trump because he is the president of the United States and it is her duty as Italian prime minister to cultivate the relationship with the United States, but she's also capable of standing up to Trump when he crosses a line."Doubts the relationship can recoverDonald Trump and Giorgia Meloni largely ignored each other at the recent NATO summit in Turkiye. (Reuters: Umit Bektas)The transatlantic relationship between the US and Europe is currently weathering its most difficult period in decades due to friction over tariffs, Ukraine, Greenland, the Middle East and defence spending.The loss of the Trump Meloni relationship means Europe has lost one of its more effective liaisons with the Trump administration.Two questions arise looking forward — will this break-up have wider consequences for the US-Italy relationship and are relations between Trump and Meloni at all recoverable?On the first question, analysts on both sides of the Atlantic believe the bond between the US and Italy runs deeper than any two leaders. On the second question, anything could happen.As the NATO summit wrapped, Trump said he thought Meloni was a "nice person", but he said their relationship had "become a little bad" because she did not help in the conflict with Iran.Meloni said she had "no regrets" about her earlier efforts to try to forge close ties with the president and that her only concern was strengthening unity within the NATO alliance."With the strong personalities of both leaders, Trump and Meloni, it makes it difficult for them to patch things up," Mr Riotta said."Even if there should be a photo opportunity or a Truth Social post [from Trump] at midnight saying, 'I like Giorgia Meloni', take this with caution because the president is the president," he said.Mr Alcaro agreed, saying: "Even if things get better in the next months and years, you will always have this risk of Trump remembering how she wasn't loyal when she was supposed to be, in his eyes."For now though, Meloni may have found a way to make that disloyalty work in her favour, among Trump-wary Italians at least.