So much for the golden economic age that President Donald Trump promised at the start of his second term. Eighteen months in, he has little to show for his highly unorthodox economic policy efforts.Prices have not fallen, economic growth has not accelerated, inflation-adjusted wages have declined, the trade deficit remains wide, and manufacturing employment has continued to dwindle.Meantime, a surging budget deficit has exacerbated the country’s public debt problem, while aggressive import tariffs and immigration policies, coupled with savage cutbacks in research spending, threaten the country’s long-term economic growth prospects.
Start with inflation, which is the public’s top economic issue. On the campaign trail, Trump promised not simply to bring inflation down but to bring down the price level.It would be a gross understatement to say that Trump has failed to deliver on this bread-and-butter issue. That failure has led to a situation where wage gains have fallen short of inflation. This means that by the time of November’s midterm elections, the average American worker will be economically worse off than he was at the start of Trump’s second term.By the time the November elections take place, the average price level will be at least 7% higher than it was when Trump started his second term, while the rate of inflation will have accelerated to over 4%. Meanwhile, the electorate will remember that Trump’s war of choice with Iran increased gasoline prices by 50% to $4.50 a gallon. They will also remember that Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act made health insurance unaffordable for around 20 million American households and contributed to continued high mortgage rates that kept home ownership beyond the reach of all too many Americans.
