What will make next season a successful one for the Toronto Maple Leafs?Making the playoffs feels like the bare minimum after last season’s 78-point disaster.But getting back to the postseason won’t be easy.It took 99 points to make it in the Eastern Conference last season, meaning a huge jump will be required from the team in Toronto. They are only one among many clubs, mind you, that missed out but look poised to challenge for a spot again, including and especially the Florida Panthers, who added Brady Tkachuk, Jacob Markstrom and Radko Gudas, among others, this season and will see Aleksander Barkov return from injury.NHL free agency: Early winners and losersShayna Goldman and Madison EadesThe range of outcomes for the 2026-27 Leafs feels wide — a 90-point team on the low end, a 100-ish points and a playoff berth on the high end.What needs to happen for the better outcome to occur?1. Auston Matthews returns to top formThis will define everything.Matthews finished second in the Hart Trophy race in 2021, won it in 2022, and fell to fourth (somehow) in 2024 when he scored 69 goals while also being nominated for the Selke Trophy.The Leafs are a significantly better team, clearly, if he gets back to being that guy.But that’s a big if at this point.It’s not just that Matthews is coming off two pretty rocky seasons in which he rarely resembled the world-crushing force of those MVP years. He is also coming off knee surgery. And he’ll turn 29 in September.The 60-goal days might be over for Matthews. Only four players in NHL history scored 60 or more at age 29 or beyond: Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy, Phil Esposito and Lanny McDonald.Can he get back to being one of the NHL’s premier goal scorers, and a Rocket Richard Trophy contender?In those last two seasons, Matthews ranked 22nd in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes (min. 2000 minutes), even with players who frankly shouldn’t be on his level: Zach Hyman, Brandon Hagel, Sam Reinhart and Adrian Kempe. He mustered almost 39 goals per 82 games.Good for most players. Not good enough for Matthews.The Leafs will be counting on a huge bounce-back season from Auston Matthews. (Eric Bolte / Imagn Images)What’s most in question is whether Matthews will rediscover the full lethality of his shot, particularly that once-deadly wrister from the mid range.Matthews scored a league-best 23 goals alone from the mid range, while shooting 19 percent on wrist shots overall, during that 69-goal season.Over the last two seasons, he scored 18 goals combined from the mid range, while shooting only 12 percent on wrist shots.Matthews should be in a better position to succeed next season.His linemates figure to improve, especially if Gavin McKenna can step in and contribute right away. General manager John Chayka also made it a priority this offseason to acquire centres who can handle a heavy defensive load, which should alleviate some of that burden on Matthews.And new head coach Jim Hiller sounds intent on boosting Matthews’ profile on the power play; Matthews scored only five power-play goals in 60 games last season, which equaled a career low.Beyond the return of his shot, the Leafs need Matthews to rediscover his power as a skater — and do so in the aftermath of that surgery. In his peak physical days, Matthews, a big guy at 6-foot-3, was like a freight train coming through the middle of the ice. That, on top of his shot, tremendous defensive instincts (including almost unmatched pickpocketing ability), and top-notch puck control, is what made him such an unusual and incredible force.Can he be that guy again?2. Sergei Bobrovsky is the real dealUnless James Reimer or Cam Talbot sign somewhere before next season — both are free agents as of this writing — Bobrovsky will be the oldest goaltender in the league next season.