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Dive Brief:
Three-quarters of the clean electricity capacity that would have been added to the United States’ grid thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act is still likely to come online, despite One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s tax credit phaseouts, according to a new study released by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The report compared clean electricity, fossil electricity and emissions reductions under the IRA trajectory to the new scenario introduced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which phased out some tax credits, as well as rollbacks to Environmental Protection Agency regulations. It concluded that on average, over 2025 to 2035 and relative to 2021, the OBBBA preserves 67–74% of the clean energy and emissions reductions benefits the IRA would have delivered.
Of all the affected technologies, onshore wind is most impacted by the Trump administration’s policies, with only 52% of the generation and 47% of the capacity expected under the IRA preserved, according to the report. This is because onshore wind is the most sensitive to the loss of tax credits, the report said, adding that “utility-scale solar and battery storage have a more modest setback, with at least 80% preserved in the OBBBA scenario over 2025 [through] 2035.”
