The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast to 3.0 per cent for 2026, down from 3.1 per cent in its April 2026 forecast.
In its July World Economic Outlook update released on Wednesday, the IMF said global growth is projected to be 3.0 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, below the average annual growth of 3.5 per cent recorded in 2024 and 2025.
The slight slowdown in global economic growth reflects the economic impact of the war in the Middle East, although part of the effect has been offset by stronger demand driven by advances in artificial intelligence, according to the IMF.
The Fund said the impact varies significantly across countries, depending on their exposure to the conflict and their position in the global technology value chain.
It noted that energy-exporting countries outside the conflict zone have benefited from improved terms of trade, while economies integrated into the AI-driven technology boom have recorded stronger economic activity, even when they are net energy importers.
