“Moana” might be heading for choppy waters at the box office.
Some tracking services are estimating that Disney’s live-action version of the animated musical will debut to $60 million to $65 million from 3,875 North American theaters. Those ticket sales are just barely above the original 2016 adventure, which opened to $56 million, not adjusted for inflation. However, others are predicting an even softer start of $35 million to $40 million, which would be catastrophic given that “Moana” carries a massive $250 million production budget — and that’s before the studio’s hefty global marketing spend is taken into account.
Overseas audiences could be key in the box office success of “Moana,” which is projected to earn $70 million to $75 million in its debut at the international box office.
Domestically, though, “Moana” is tracking as one of the lower openings in terms of Disney’s live-action remakes. It could join the company of 2019’s “Dumbo” ($45 million) and 2025’s “Snow White” ($42 million), both of which became box office losers against hefty production budgets. By comparison, the studio’s adaptations of “Lilo & Stitch,” “The Lion King” and “Beauty and the Beast” each debuted above $100 million.
