The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday modestly downgraded its outlook for the world economy this year, citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war. But the fallout from the conflict is being partially offset by booming investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies.
The IMF now expects the global economy to expand by a sluggish 3% in 2026, down from 3.5% last year and from the 3.1% it had forecast for this year back in April. The fund expects worldwide growth to rebound to 3.4% next year.
Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks Feb. 28 by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and natural gas passes. Energy prices soared, squeezing businesses and consumers. The IMF now expects oil prices to be up nearly 32% this year and for global consumer prices overall to increase 4.7% in 2026. That would be up from 4.1% in 2025 and would mean that two years of progress against inflation has stalled.
The IMF forecasts assume that the Strait of Hormuz reopens later this month — even though U.S. strikes on Iran resumed and President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that a ceasefire with Iran was over. They also assume that commerce through the strait returns to normal by next March.
