Far-right French leader Marine Le Pen’s decision to run for president after a court shortened her ban on holding public office is a big gamble.It’s the fourth presidential run for the veteran campaigner, whose five-year ban on holding office for misuse of public funds was sufficiently reduced by an appeal court on Tuesday to allow her to run for an election scheduled for April 2027.The complex court decision – a 45-month ban on holding public office, with 30 months suspended; two years on probation and one under house arrest – caused scenes of confusion among the media as journalists scrambled to calculate what it meant.If Le Pen accepted this as the final verdict, her year of house arrest would have become effective and she would have had to campaign while having her movements restricted and wearing an electronic bracelet. But she hasn’t accepted the verdict, instead deciding to lodge a final appeal to France’s higher Court of Cassation. This means, according to Le Pen, that she can campaign freely because her house arrest would not come into effect while the appeal is still pending.In normal times, the result of the final appeal could be expected next summer, after the election takes place, but the courts are expected to expedite it to January 2027. The earliest Le Pen could therefore be seen in an ankle bracelet would be February 2027, two months before the election, though she does have further options to try to delay its enforcement.If elected president, all legal proceedings against her would be put on ice due to presidential immunity until her term is finished.However, there is a risk that the appeal may not go her way. These are legally untested waters, but there is possibility that the Court of Cassation decision could go against her and could reinstate her five-year ban on holding office, ruling her out of the race during its final stretch. This may be unlikely, though, as the appeal court’s ruling made clear that avoiding interference with the ability of the French public to choose a president was a factor in its decision.Her 30-year-old protege Jordan Bardella, who has been prepared as a successor and a plan B candidate for the party, is to remain a central part of the campaign and her declared choice for prime minister, and he can always step in as a presidential candidate if needed.Jordan Bardella is to remain a central part of Le Pen's campaign. Photograph: Julien De Rosa/AFP via Getty Images But, legal matters aside, is another Le Pen candidacy the best strategic decision for her party? The pending judicial proceedings mean that Le Pen is still campaigning under the shadow of a conviction for abuse of public funds, something that she herself said in 2013 should carry a sentence of “lifetime ineligibility” for public office.The facts revealed by the courts are grubby. The case found she oversaw a system under which people who worked for the far right National Rally party and its leadership were fictitiously signed up as assistants to Members of the European Parliament. Their wages were being covered by public money while they were scarcely to be seen in Strasbourg or Brussels.Attempts by Le Pen to cast the judicial proceedings as a political persecution of her in the style of US president Donald Trump have mostly flopped with the French public.The image of a president-elect possibly wearing an electronic ankle bracelet clashes uncomfortably with the exalted office of the Élysée Palace and all its decorum. It will be no help to the National Rally’s long-time strategy to “normalise” its image, appeal to a broader electorate, and break down the long-held taboo in French politics against working with the far right.If polls are to be believed, the fresh-faced Bardella would have been the stronger candidate.“Serious doubts over her ability to run had turned Bardella into the favourite at rallies and in the polls,” Corentin Lesueur wrote in an analysis for Le Monde after the decision. “Every opinion poll ranks him several percentage points higher than his mentor. Every rally confirms that a majority of supporters wanted the protege to replace the master.” The French public have already rejected Le Pen three times, but she clearly believes that despite her legal troubles the momentum is now with her. She is staking everything on that belief.[ Le Pen declares French presidential candidacy after court shortens sentenceOpens in new window ][ Who is Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen's loyal lieutenant?Opens in new window ]