Markets are on the backfoot this morning with equity futures and macro credit under pressure, bond yields spiking, the USD higher, and oil jumping after President Trump thrust geopolitical risks back into focus by declaring the ceasefire between the US and Iran to be over calling it “a waste of time” after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures slid 0.7% and Nasdaq futures slumped 1% dragged lower by memory and chip stocks after the latest kinetic volley. The latter takes place in the context of mixed tech trade in Asia with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5%, whilst the South Korean Kospi lost 5.4%. Pre-market semis and Mag7 are being sold as Energy and Staples are the two best sectors; everything else is flat to down. The drawdown in momentum and the broader AI infrastructure trade (~85% correlation between these two cohorts) remains heavily in focus, with the GS High Beta Momentum basket (GSPRHIMO) now surpassing -20% over the past 5 days. This morning, global price action is pointing towards “more of the same” with the primary Momentum tone-setters (Hynix -6% in Korea, SNDK -6%, MU -5%) lower across the board. Brent crude advanced 5% to around $78 a barrel while WTI breached $75/bbl (+6%) before declining as the Energy complex leads commodities higher. Precious metals are getting hit with mixed bids to Ags and Base metals. Treasury yields are up around 2-3bps across the curve (10Y yield rising to 4.56%) with the market needing to digest a $39bln 10 year note auction ahead of the FOMC minutes. USD is higher. Higher energy prices feed into inflation expectations and Fed minutes this afternoon take on added significance in the tighter-lipped Warsh era. Gold fell and the dollar wavered.In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are lower (Meta -1.8%, Nvidia -1.6%, Microsoft -1.4%, Amazon -1.7%, Tesla -1.6%, Alphabet -1.3%, Apple -0.4%). Chipmakers and other AI-linked names are set for more declines on Wednesday as traders continue to rotate out of the sector.Energy stocks rally, while airlines and cruise lines slide, after Trump said a tentative ceasefire with Iran is “over,” raising the prospect of an end to peace negotiations and a potential renewal of fighting between the two countries. Chevron (CVX) climbs 2%, while Exxon (XOM) gains 2%.Alibaba ADRs (BABA) surge 8% after investors turned optimistic on its earnings and shifted capital into major Chinese internet companies.Bath & Body Works (BBWI) falls 4% after Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane cut her recommendation on candle and soap retailer to sell. Sentiment on the company is “trending below historical levels,” including Reddit trends and with younger consumers, Goldman’s analyst writes.Beazer Homes USA (BZH) climbs 12% after Dream Finders Homes said it has submitted a revised all-cash proposal to acquire the company.FuelCell Energy (FCEL) falls 21% after the company priced its upsized underwritten public offering of 10.7 million shares of its common stock.MasTec (MTZ) inches 2% higher after the construction company entered into a pact to buy Electrical Specialists for about $1.65 billion, consisting of about $475 million in MasTec stock and about $1.175 billion in cash.Navitas (NVTS) is down 7% after Wolfspeed filed a patent infringement lawsuit against the company in the US District Court for the District of Delaware, alleging that a broad range of Navitas products infringes multiple Wolfspeed patents.Universal Health Services (UHS) slips 2% after Barclays downgraded the hospital operator to equal-weight, saying the fundamental and regulatory backdrop is turning more negative.Overnight sentiment was hammered when a retaliation by the US on Iranian targets overnight was followed up by remarks just after 4am ET from US President Trump that the ceasefire with Iran is over, saying that "as far as I’m concerned it’s just a waste of time." The dollar and yields spiked, while WTI crude jumped back above $75 a barrel, Trump's comments, made on day two of the NATO summit in Turkey, followed the US revocation yesterday of a waiver allowing sales of Iranian oil and subsequent strikes against more than 80 targets. Trump meets Ukraine’s Zelenskyy later. A handful of oil carriers appeared to transit through the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday, even after a spate of strikes on ships rattled owners and prompted at least one supertanker to turn around midway through its crossing.Trump’s declaration “marks the most serious rupture yet in an agreement that has been fraying for weeks,” said Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares. “Markets had been treating the June memorandum of understanding as a durable de-escalation. That complacency now looks fragile.”Trump overnight also slammed Spain for not contributing enough to NATO and threatened to cut off all trade with the country. That said, JPM tried to calm nerves with comments this morning, writing that the situation has not materially changed with neither US / Iran showing a desire for an extended conflict. On the US side, Trump had argued that the ceasefire paused the 60-day limit before he is required to get Congressional approval to extent military hostilities. He was facing resistance to secure additional funding for the war and next year’s military budget during the ceasefire, so another spike to fuel prices adds to that political headwind. On the Iran side, they want legal control of SoH but likely want higher oil prices to pressure Trump and to maintain revenue given the lack of demand for their unsanctioned oil.“My first read is that investors will not immediately price this as a full return to war, but they also cannot go back to the clean ‘peace dividend’ trade,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “The bigger point is that any path from ceasefire to durable peace now looks much longer and much more fragile.”Today's 2 p.m. ET release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes takes on added significance after Warsh shortened the policy statement and declined to contribute to rate forecasts. Bloomberg Economics’ Andrew Sacher expects the account to reinforce the committee’s focus on above-target inflation and its preference to preserve the option of further tightening. The options market is signaling that investors may be overestimating how much the Fed will raise rates this year. Since Warsh said last week that inflation risks have eased, flows in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate have tilted toward positions that would benefit if the swaps market pares back expectations for further rate hikes.Elsewhere, China lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt. In New Zealand, the RBNZ raised rates by 25bps (expected) with guidance still leading toward hikes, though with a softened tone. Looking ahead, we will receive wholesale inventories for May and the June FOMC meeting minutes. In Europe sentiment was hammered with the Stoxx 600 down 1.9% and all sectors ex-energy lower. Energy is the only rising sector, while autos and construction fall the most. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:Jet2 shares surge as much as 17%. Analysts see strong booking momentum amid ebbing geopolitical risks and lower jet fuel prices.TGS shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Norwegian geophysical consulting and services firm reported better-than-expected 2Q results.Repsol shares gain as much as 4.8% after the Spanish oil company reported a stronger refining margin in 2Q.Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares rise as much as 6% after a Betaville report regarding possible takeover interest in the UK pharmaceutical company.Kuros Biosciences gains as much as 12% after Berenberg initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation, saying the Swiss company’s growth is “poised to reach an inflection point.”Lufthansa drops as much as 6.4% after Citi downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, saying the valuation seems “less compelling” following the recent rally.Man Group shares drop as much as 3.4% after UBS downgraded the investment management firm on valuation grounds following strong gains.Rio Tinto falls as much as 3.6% in London to its lowest since March after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to underweight from equal-weight, saying the miner’s valuation is stretched given weaker iron ore fundamentals and limited copper exposure.Castellum shares drop as much as 4.9% after UBS downgraded the Swedish property firm to neutral from buy, saying “much of the near-term value creation is now reflected in the share price.”Vistry shares fall as much as 12% after the homebuilder warned of first-half losses.Boku shares plunge by a record 35%, slumping to their lowest level since 2022, after the payments company warned its results for 2026 will be below market expectations.Belimo shares fall as much as 7.4% after the Swiss maker of heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment was cut to sell at Van Lanschot Kempen, which sees a potential increase to guidance as already priced in.Asian equities fell further after the US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between his country and Iran over, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1%, after swinging between a loss of 1% and gain of 0.4%. Indian stocks reacted adversely to Trump’s comments, with the benchmark Nifty 50 gauge dropping over 2% and a gauge of volatility spiking 30%. Stocks also extended their decline in Indonesia, which relies heavily on oil imports, while futures on Japanese stocks fell 1.3%. The fresh bout of weakness follows a selloff in technology stocks in South Korea, where Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the major drags. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi fell 5.4%, taking its drop from last month’s all-time high to about 20%. Shares also fell in Japan and Australia, while those in Hong Kong and Singapore advanced. Bucking the trend, a key gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong climbed 4% earlier in the day, as the AI rotation trade gathered pace in Asia. Investors are pulling money from the chipmakers that powered this year’s rally and hunting for cheaper ways to play the technology boom. Elsewhere, Indonesian equities fell after S&P Dow Jones Indices signaled the country could eventually lose its emerging-market status if concerns over its stock market persist. New Zealand stocks fell as the central bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in three years.In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%. However, performance versus peers is mixed with Kiwi dollar near the top of the leaderboard after a hawkish hike from the RBNZIn rates, treasuries extended their late-Tuesday selloff as oil prices mounted sharply after US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran is over. 2-year yields topped 4.20%, approaching this year’s high, while 10-year exceeded 4.58%, cheapest since May 22. US front-end and belly yields are 2bp-3bp higher on the day, flattening 5s30s spread by around 1bp. 10-year, higher by 2bp, trails steeper increases for German and UK counterparts as they catch up with Tuesday’s US yield surge that occurred after European markets had closed. European bonds tumbled as traders added to wagers that central banks will have little choice but to raise interest rates this year. The yield on 10-year gilts jumped 10 basis points to 4.95%, the highest level in nearly a month. This week’s Treasury auctions continue with $39 billion 10-year reopening at 1pm New York time and conclude with $22 billion 30-year reopening Thursday. Demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year new issue, which stopped through by 0.6bp and had a record low dealer allotment. WI 10-year yield near 4.575% is ~4bp cheaper than the June auction, which stopped through slightly in a solid result. Focal points of US session include a 10-year reopening auction and publication of minutes of June FOMC meeting. IG dollar issuance slate includes a KfW $6 billion 2-part offering. Amazon’s $25b offering headlined a six-issuer US investment-grade new issue session Tuesday. Issuers paid about 10bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.8 times oversubscribed.In commodities, Brent crude futures are higher by 6.7% and just above the $79/bbl mark as tensions in the Middle East ratchet higher. Oil extended its gains on renewed US-Iran tensions, raising the prospect of a fresh round of conflict in one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions. This came after the US military launched fresh air strikes in Iran and revoked a waiver that allowed it to sell oil globally. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver down 1.2% and 2.5% respectively. Bitcoin has slipped over 3%.US economic data calendar includes May wholesale inventories (10am) and consumer credit (3pm). Fed calendar empty for the session apart from FOMC minutes release at 2pmMarket SnapshotTop Overnight NewsUS President Donald Trump said a tentative ceasefire with Iran has ended, raising the prospect of an end to peace negotiations and a potential renewal of fighting between the two countries. “For me, I think it’s over. As far as I’m concerned it’s just a waste of time.” BBGPresident Trump slammed Spain for not contributing enough to NATO or spending enough on defense. “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain,” Trump said at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey. CNBCSouth Korean stocks have entered a technical bear market as investors raise concerns about the long-term prospects of the AI chipmakers that have driven a world-beating rally. The Kospi index is down more than 20 per cent from its record high in June after slipping more than 5 per cent on Wednesday. FTChina has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt, trade sources ‌said on Wednesday, as the world’s biggest refiner returns towards normal after disruptions from the Iran war. BBGThe AI rotation trade is gathering pace in Asia as investors pull money from chipmakers and hunt for cheaper ways to play the technology boom. Investors are rotating into one of Asia's most unloved markets, with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. rising after the Kospi Index was pushed to a technical bear market. BBGThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates Wednesday in what appeared to be a tentative move by policy makers to combat nagging inflation pressures. The official cash rate was raised by 25 basis points to 2.5%. WSJOpenAI said its new AI model GPT-5.6 will be made available to the public tomorrow. The White House lifted restrictions on the model after government-approved entities were given a preview. AxiosNvidia’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom, after losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in under two months. BBGWildcatters are racing to secure oil deals in Venezuela, moving faster than Big Oil despite earthquake damage and political uncertainty. Whether the country’s vast reserves can overcome the current challenges remains an open question. BBGSouth Korea's Foreign Ministry said they have signed an MoU with the US and Japan on cooperation to deploy small modular reactors: RTRS.The sell off in the Goldman High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) has now surpassed 20% over 5 days, exceeding short term expectations for a summer slump in the factor. This magnitude of sell off at such velocity has not been seen since 2020 when the stay-at-home vs go outside narrative shifted meaningfully towards reopening. It is notable that the current drawdown does not have the same strength of catalyst. Fingers have pointed towards SK Hynix raising and META cloud business.Iran WarTrump stated he "thinks" the ceasefire with Iran is "over": Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over "I think"; as far as I am concerned, it is a waste of time dealing with Iran. On the MoU, "think it is over". Adds, "I do not want to deal with Iran", they are a "bunch of liars".US President Trump said (on Iran) he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want. But, "I think this is a waste of time".US CENTOM announced that it completed a new round of offensive strikes, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions. CENTCOM added that forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable when the agreement is not adhered to or obeyed.Several explosions have been heard in Bushehr, Iran, according to Mehr news; Mehr's journalist on Kharg Island denies reported of an attack on Kharg, despite some reported of an incident being published.In response, Iran's IRGC said they hit 85 important US military installations in Port Salman, Bahrain's 5th Maritime Zone and Kuwait's Ali Salem Air Base.A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of NewqsuawkAsia-Pac stocks traded mixed, with Chinese indices the only region in the green amid multiple IPOs and strength in China's tech space. Sentiment from the US session carried over in the Asia-Pac session, as energy prices surged amid the re-escalation of US-Iran tensions. ASX 200 continued to be weighed on by metals, with the Metals & Mining sector the worst performer, with Materials followed. Energy topped the sector pile Nikkei 225 started on the softer side, briefly returned to the unchanged mark before returning to the downside. KOSPI traded choppy, as the initial weakness briefly reversed to print modest gains. However, weakness returned as the session continued, resulting in the Korea Exchange activating the sidecar on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. As a result, the KOSPI extended its losses from June peak to 20%, indicating a bear market. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng. were the only indices printing gains, with outperformance in the Hang Seng following strength in tech names. The strength can be attributed to two reports: 1) From Reuters, DeepSeek developing its own chip to power AI systems, and 2) from the Information, Zhiphu considering designing its own AI chip.Top Asian NewsChina's MIIT has issued a risk warning regarding the potential security backdoors in the AI programming tool Claude Code.South Korean Government said companies with consolidated assets of over KRW 10tln will be required to disclose information on their ESG performance and risks, starting 2028.South Korean Finance Minister said they are to watch risk factors around stock market volatility, will enhance FX monitoring system to respond to night-time volatility.Japan is considering a change to monetary policy wording in the Honebuto, Asahi reported.European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.8%) began the session lower amid renewed US-Iran developments which spurred energy benchmarks higher. The move then extended after US President Trump suggested that he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is "over".