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With energy prices falling back toward pre-Iran war levels, you might expect Americans' inflation outlook to improve. You would be wrong, at least according to one major survey.

Driving the news: The New York Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a 0.2 percentage point rise in respondents' expected inflation for both the next year and the next three years.

State of play: With inflation running above its 2% target for the last five-plus years, the Fed is hyper-attuned to the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and a self-reinforcing pattern of rising prices becoming entrenched.