Target: ₹240CMP: ₹218.05We like Adani Power’s strategy of capturing counter-cyclical arbitrage in asset creation, which earns outsized returns in a structurally ‘utility’ sector. With a large growth pipeline, industry-leading execution and complementary group renewables and energy-management businesses, we estimate Adani Power can quadruple EBITDA by FY33-35E. Adani Power’s willingness to take anti-consensus, counter-cyclical bets has translated into the best returns in the segment. It assembled a 7.3-GW portfolio of stressed assets at an average capital cost of ₹4.2 crore/MW, which now earn a median book RoE of 50 per cent. On the same logic, ordering boiler, turbine, generator equipment ahead of the coal-capex revival locked in capex of ₹10 crore/MW, c. 20 per cent below peers, which, we estimate, yields 350-400 bps higher RoE at comparable tariffs. We expect Adani Power’s free cash flow from operations to rise from c.₹17,000 crore in FY26 to c.₹57,000 crore on full portfolio buildout, with optionality from planned moves into nuclear (10-GW capacity target by 2035) and hydro (5-GW JV with Druk Green Power, Bhutan) as well. We forecast a c.20 per cent EBITDA CAGR over FY26-29E as some under-construction projects commission, making it among the fastest-growing non-renewable power gencos in India. Our SoTP-based 12-month TP of ₹240/share values Adani Power at an implied FY28E EV/EBITDA of 20x, above the coverage median of 11.1x, reflecting its faster growth and superior profitability.Published on July 7, 2026