Europe is expected to face several more years of modest economic expansion, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting that growth across the eurozone will average just 1.2% annually between 2027 and 2031. The bloc's strongest performance is expected in 2028, when growth is projected to reach only 1.4%. Across the European Union as a whole, the outlook is only slightly stronger, with average annual growth of 1.4% and a peak of 1.6% in 2028.
The IMF attributes the subdued outlook to a combination of high public debt, aging populations, weak productivity, elevated energy costs, and continuing geopolitical uncertainty. Compared with the global economy, Europe's prospects remain relatively weak. Worldwide output is expected to expand by around 3.2% annually during the same period, while emerging and developing Asia is projected to grow by 4.6% a year, India by 6.5%, and sub-Saharan Africa by 4.6%.
Despite the broader slowdown, several smaller European economies are expected to outperform the eurozone by a wide margin, with annual growth rates more than double the bloc's average.
Moldova ranks fifth among the fastest-growing European economies, with the IMF projecting average annual growth of 3.5% between 2027 and 2031 and a peak of roughly 3.7% in 2028. The country's recovery follows several difficult years marked by the war in neighboring Ukraine, an energy crisis, and severe drought that nearly stalled economic growth in 2024. Much of Moldova's renewed momentum is tied to its closer relationship with the European Union. After receiving EU candidate status in 2022 and opening accession negotiations in 2024, the country has benefited from increased European funding through the EU Growth Plan. Rising household consumption, supported by stronger wages and remittances accounting for about one-tenth of GDP, has also boosted activity, while the IT sector and other services continue to expand. The IMF concluded that the recovery is "supported by a good harvest, strong domestic demand, and substantial EU financing," while warning that the biggest threats remain the war in Ukraine and any slowdown in reform efforts.
