If you missed it, “The Athletic Football Show” recently had a long discussion about whether the Kansas City Chiefs deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the upcoming 2026 season.And as part of that, co-hosts Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman investigated an interesting point about how the Chiefs have evolved.Though K.C.’s offense was probably better last year statistically than you remember, there’s no question it’s far behind the pace of 2022, quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ last MVP season.
Chiefs offense ranks Points/DriveNFL rank20222.681st20231.9910th20242.2410th20252.1415th
To be completely fair to last year’s team … if we take only the first 14 games (when Mahomes was healthy), K.C. averaged 2.41 points per drive, which was ninth in the NFL.The point remains: Even if the offense could be considered good, it was not at the elite level of previous seasons like 2022.So, what was the biggest reason for that? It shouldn’t be a surprise, but explosive plays have been trending downward recently, with no significant rebound.
Chiefs explosive plays 20+ yard playsNFL rank2022831st202362T-14th20244927th202555T-19th
It’s not like the Chiefs weren’t aiming for more of these last year. One of their season mantras was “AAF,” which stood for “Aggressive as F—.” Then-offensive coordinator Matt Nagy wanted Mahomes to always think aggressively during plays, urging him to challenge defenses with deep throws that could result in chunk plays.While that helped the Chiefs early in the season, the results didn’t last. It also wasn’t a perfect sync with Mahomes’ skill set, as long throws haven’t historically been his greatest strength as a passer.Mays got deeper into this point during his discussion with Mays and Helman. He said, when rewatching last year’s Chiefs offense, some of the best things he saw were when K.C. attacked the intermediate area of the field.“They just don’t do it very much,” Mays said. “And even when you look at this receiving group, who is that guy? Who is that guy that you want to throw the ball to in the intermediate area of the field?”Do Kansas City Chiefs have enough offensive firepower?Robert MaysThe data backs up Mays’ point — and then some.Per TruMedia, the Chiefs’ NFL-best explosiveness in 2022 was often fueled by Mahomes’ mid-range game, which ate up yards.One way to look at this is by singling out Mahomes’ passes between 11 and 20 air yards — a rough equivalent of that intermediate part of the field.In 2022, Mahomes averaged 7.4 of those plays per game — fifth highest among 33 qualified quarterbacks — while earning 0.70 expected points per play on those throws; that was third best in the league.Those numbers cratered in 2025. Mahomes averaged 5.8 plays last season (22nd among 33 qualified QBs) with an EPA per play of 0.41 (14th out of 33 QBs).So, what’s changed for the Chiefs over the last four seasons that might’ve turned this strength into a weakness?Klassen hit on an important point with Mays.“The problem … it used to be Travis Kelce being your intermediate, middle player,” Klassen said. “That has been gone for two years.”The argument stands up to deeper evaluation, as well.In 2022, the star tight end was fourth in the NFL with receiving yards on air throws between 11 and 20 yards, racking up 577 yards on 24 receptions.In 2025? Kelce tied for 50th in this same category with 223 of those intermediate receiving yards.This shouldn’t come as a shock, given what we know about aging curves. The soon-to-be-37-year-old Kelce has predictably lost a step over the last few seasons, which we can see in a few ways; his number of 10-plus-air-yard routes decreased from 45 in 2022 to 25 in 2025, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, while his air yards per target also has steadily declined each of the last four seasons (7.3 in 2022, 6.8 in 2023, 6.6 in 2024, 6.3 in 2025).The issue for the Chiefs, though, isn’t that Kelce is aging. It’s that they’ve never figured out a suitable replacement for him in the middle of Mahomes’ hot spot.Who led the Chiefs in receiving yards on intermediate throws last year? Perhaps you might’ve guessed … it was still Kelce, with his 223 yards. Rashee Rice (197) and Xavier Worthy (176) were next in line but still had totals that put them behind players like Houston Texans receiver Xavier Hutchinson and Los Angeles Chargers tight end Oronde Gadsden.That, though, shouldn’t be considered a slight on either player. Rice has established himself as someone who thrives on short throws while delivering punishing yards-after-catch numbers. Worthy, meanwhile, is known for his speed, meaning deeper routes are likely to be a greater specialty.It all raises the question, though: If Rice and Worthy aren’t the best fits to play this “middle” role for the Chiefs, then who is?Tyquan Thornton, like Worthy, profiles more as a speedy sideline threat. Second-year player Jalen Royals barely saw the field last season, while tight end Noah Gray had a down year in 2025 while battling injuries.Fifth-round rookie Cyrus Allen has a reputation as a separator, but first-year players have usually needed some time before fully becoming comfortable with the Chiefs’ extensive playbook.In any case, the Chiefs appear to have a short- and long-term question in need of addressing, even with Kelce returning for his 14th season.Yes, free-agent running back Kenneth Walker III should help with a few more explosive plays. And a healthier Worthy should allow for greater route flexibility than he had last season.When Mahomes is at his best, though, he’s had a fast, reliable player gashing the middle of opposing defenses.And if that can’t be Kelce anymore, who will it be?
