Shell has revised its integrated gas production forecast upwards for the second quarter, driven significantly by the surging cost of crude oil, which has also provided a substantial boost to its oil and gas trading operations.Despite this improved outlook, the energy giant’s integrated gas production between April and June is still anticipated to see a sharp decline compared to the first quarter. This reduction is primarily attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has severely impacted output from Qatar. Shell’s Pearl GTL site in Qatar ceased production in March following attacks, with other LNG facilities in the country, partly owned by Shell, also experiencing disruptions.While the Pearl site remains offline since the missile strike, the group has seen its overall production bolstered by robust performances at other facilities globally. Furthermore, Shell indicated that trading results within its chemicals and products unit, which includes its crucial oil trading business, are expected to align with the previous quarter’s strong performance. In the first quarter, this division saw its underlying earnings more than quadruple year-on-year, reaching 1.93 billion dollars (£1.44 billion).Shell has upped its integrated gas production outlook as the soaring cost of crude also significantly boosted its oil and gas trading businesses. (PA Archive)Shell added that the performance in its gas trading division is set to be “significantly higher” than in the first three months of the year.Brent crude oil, jet fuel and gas prices rocketed higher after the Iran war started on February 28, with the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping closed.The price of crude hit above 120 US dollars a barrel but has fallen back to levels seen before the war, now at around 73 dollars a barrel, after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal last month.After surging to multi-year highs, Shell’s shares have been knocked in recent weeks as the price of oil has recovered to pre-war levels,Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at investing and trading platform IG, said: “While Shell can revel in the boost to refining margins and the bounty delivered by an inflow of working capital, it also has to suffer through the loss of production thanks to a hit to Qatari volumes.“The rout in Shell’s share price has reflected that in oil prices, but higher margins give hope that some of that extra cash will find its way to shareholders via dividends.”