With El Niño expected at the start of South Africa’s next planting season, agricultural experts are divided on the impact it will have on the sector.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said that one of the major points of discussion this past week has been the likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and consumer food price inflation in 2027.
Sihlobo added that the concerns are understandable, as the latest weather forecasts continue to signal that we are heading towards a severe El Niño. “Its arrival will coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in mid-October.”
Sihlobo said that South Africa has benefited from a prolonged La Niña, which has supported the agricultural sector over the past few years. “Importantly, the rainfall periods have also been much longer than the typical periods. For example, in the 2024-25 season, the summer rain continued through April 2025. This is longer than the typical summer rains, which normally end in March.”
Sihlobo said that in the 2025-26 season, the rain continued through to May 2026, which is far longer than the typical rainfall cycles that end in March.
