Yes, things have changed as a result of NBA free agency, the draft and the series of trades that always accompany those two events.But has anything really changed?To wit, has anything happened that might shift the balance of power in the league?Thus far, the shifts have been more subtle than seismic. I say that with one giant, LeBron-sized asterisk, because his free agency is the one true, June-level, needle-mover left on the board.Top 5 LeBron Lakers MomentsStill, the striking thing about the state of play, as things stand, is how little even the dramatic moves of this offseason stand to change things once we get to the highest levels of playoff basketball. The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat added Jaylen Brown and Giannis Antetokounmpo, respectively, yet still seem nowhere near good enough to make a conference finals, with each having glaring deficiencies in depth and shooting.We’ll get to the LeBron James part of the equation. But assuming the other three major free agents left re-sign with their own teams, we can already see the outlines of what next season’s contender class looks like. Broadly speaking, it feels like a lot last year, with perhaps one notable exception. Geographically, it has tilted slightly East with Kawhi Leonard’s move to the Toronto Raptors, but unless James bookends Leonard’s L.A.-to-lakes journey by joining the Cleveland Cavaliers, the West still looks tougher.Let’s take a quick look at the state of the league right now.Tier 1: The two juggernauts — San Antonio, Oklahoma CityVegas oddsmakers have the Spurs and Thunder as by far the two favorites to win the title next season. That might seem disrespectful to the champs, and we’ll get to them in a minute, but there’s a reason these two teams get so much love: They are really young, and they were tremendous last season, winning more than 60 games with dominant underlying stats. Only one can advance to the NBA Finals, but they’re good bets to have the two best regular-season records again.Oklahoma City won more games than any other team each of the past two seasons, won the title in ’25 and lost the ’26 conference finals in seven games because of two key injuries. The Thunder still have the league’s deepest roster, its most dominant defense and a two-time MVP. Their entire offseason so far consists of shedding players they didn’t need a year ago, even though they were perfectly cromulent rotation players.However, the important move was reworking Isaiah Hartenstein’s contract so the team can likely avoid the second apron and maintain flexibility for in-season needs. Even after winning 64 and 68 games the past two seasons with historic scoring margins, what’s wild is that the team is young enough that it’s likely to be even better next season.San Antonio, of course, was outclassed by the New York Knicks in the finals but has even more of an age-related wind at its back than OKC with key players Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle all being in their early 20s. It’s not absurd to think that Wembanyama could win MVP and Harper could win Most Improved Player in the same season. The Spurs also addressed a key weakness with the addition of Tobias Harris, giving them a fourth-quarter-caliber power forward who was glaringly missing from the rotation when they were challenged against the Thunder and Knicks.It was a magical season for Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the New York Knicks. (Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)Tier 1A: The champs — New YorkNew York lost Mitchell Robinson, but I don’t see that as a serious problem. Yes, he helped at the margins, but he played only 13 minutes a game in the finals and even ceded minutes to Ariel Hukporti and Jeremy Sochan while the Knicks were coming back from 29 down in Game 4.What I see as possibly more problematic is New York’s attempt to catch lightning in a bottle a second time next spring, or at least preserve the bolt from 2026. The Knicks were a good-but-not-great regular-season team whose not-particularly-young cast members are all a year older.