Eli Willits — a high school shortstop — went No. 1 last season. Can Grady Emerson make it two years in a row with a high school shortstop going first, or will Roch Cholowsky or Vahn Lackey take the honor? Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Tracy Proffitt, Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP Photo, Dan Squicciarini / NurPhoto via Getty ImagesAnalysisJuly 6, 2026 5:00 am EDT Updated Here’s my penultimate mock draft for the 2026 MLB Draft; the final one comes out on Friday. With organizations starting their draft meetings over the weekend, there’s more information out there on some team preferences, but as has been the case since the last Collective Bargaining Agreement was signed, teams are pretty tight-lipped about a lot of their preferences, and they won’t really talk money with players/agents until Friday at the earliest.Keith Law's Big Board for the 2026 MLB DraftKeith LawThis is my projection of how the draft might go, but has nothing at all to do with my opinions of the players themselves. You can find my rankings and scouting reports on the top 100 players in the class on my Big Board. I’ll have some supplemental reports up later this week on other players who might be drafted in the first few rounds but didn’t make the cut for the top 100.Expand allCollapse allPlayer ProfileSchool: Fort Worth Christian (North Richland Hills, Texas), Bats: L, Throws: RAt this point, six days out, I think the White Sox are leaning towards Emerson, with Vahn Lackey second and Roch Cholowsky a somewhat distant third. Their scouts seem to favor Emerson — if you like him, you’re hoping he’s the next Kevin McGonigle — whereas I think the front office favors Lackey. Cholowsky is the safer choice here, both in that he’s the most likely to become a solid big leaguer, and as the consensus No. 1 prospect for most of the last year, drafting him is like buying from IBM. (Old tech joke.)Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight180PositionSSDOB02-21-08Position PlayerHigh SchoolSSPlayer ProfileSchool: Georgia Tech, Bats: R, Throws: RThe Rays may have the widest mix in the top three, as it seems like they could still take Lackey, Roch Cholowsky, Jackson Flora or Tyler Bell, the latter on an under-slot deal to preserve some money for subsequent picks. I do get the sense that Lackey is their top choice, as he might be a generational talent and the solution to the Rays’ nearly 30-year problem behind the plate, too.Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight215PositionCDOB07-07-05Position Player4-Year CollegeCPlayer ProfileSchool: UCLA, Bats: R, Throws: RThe Twins are in the catbird seat here: If you see the top of the draft as a three-man race, the Twins are guaranteed to get one of them. If Cholowsky does get here, they’ll take him. If he doesn’t, then things open up, and they could take model darling Drew Burress or possibly take Jackson Flora.Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight202PositionSSDOB04-05-05Position Player4-Year CollegeSSPlayer ProfileSchool: Gulliver Prep (Pinecrest, Fla.), Bats: R, Throws: ROne rumor has the Giants wanting Grady Emerson badly enough to go well over slot here to get him. Another is that Buster Posey wants Roch Cholowsky and the Giants even sent former UCLA shortstop Brandon Crawford to go visit the current UCLA shortstop. The reality is that there’s a good chance both guys are off the board here, at which point the Giants are looking at a mix of hitters that includes Lombard, Tyler Bell and Eric Booth Jr.Bio InfoHeight6-3Weight185PositionSSDOB09-27-07Position PlayerHigh SchoolSSPlayer ProfileSchool: UC Santa Barbara, Bats: R, Throws: RThe most opaque team in the top 10, the Pirates would take any of those top three names if one fell here. Buster Posey was the No. 5 pick in 2008, and Vahn Lackey has some similarities in his career arc, although they are not similar players — but that’s probably not happening at pick 5. Several sources noted that the Pirates have swung big in several drafts now and have a pretty good hit rate, so don’t be surprised if they go for another high-upside pick here.Bio InfoHeight6-5Weight205PositionRHPDOB05-25-05Pitcher4-Year CollegeRHPPlayer ProfileSchool: USC, Bats: L, Throws: LThe Royals could very well go for Jacob Lombard or Eric Booth Jr., but there’s been a rumor for about two months now that they would love to get a college pitcher here, perhaps on a discount (Edwards would certainly come in well under slot), so they can grab several higher-upside high school picks later on, especially since scouting director Brian Bridges appears to have hit already on recent high school picks Josh Hammond and David Shields. If it’s not Edwards, it could be Logan Reddemann or Liam Peterson, and I believe this would be Jackson Flora’s absolute floor.Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight190PositionLHPDOB07-17-05Pitcher4-Year CollegeLHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Oak Grove HS (Hattiesburg, Miss.), Bats: L, Throws: LI’ve heard Baltimore with Booth and Jacob Lombard more than anyone else, although I suspect they also would consider Drew Burress or Derek Curiel — or Jackson Flora, if by some crazy chance he got this far.Bio InfoHeight6-0Weight207PositionOFDOB07-04-08Position PlayerHigh SchoolOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Georgia Tech, Bats: R, Throws: RNothing too surprising here — the A’s are connected with college bats primarily, like Burress, Derek Curiel, Ryder Helfrick and maybe Tyler Bell. I can’t imagine a scenario where Flora gets here, but I’m sure they’d just take him if he did.Bio InfoHeight5-9Weight185PositionOFDOB12-05-04Position Player4-Year CollegeOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Stoneman Douglas HS (Parkland, Fla.), Bats: R, Throws: LThe rumor all spring has been that Atlanta wants Drew Burress, but in the last week or two that has seemed much less likely, with Burress in play all the way up to the top three picks. If he’s gone, they’re more likely go with a pitcher, and Rojas is the top high school pitcher in the class.Bio InfoHeight6-4Weight190PositionLHPDOB06-28-07PitcherHigh SchoolLHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Kentucky, Bats: B, Throws: RI think the Rockies are more likely to go hitter than pitcher, and more likely to go college than high school, with Bell, Derek Curiel, Ryder Helfrick and Liam Peterson all possibilities.Bio InfoHeight6-1Weight190PositionSSDOB06-30-05Position Player4-Year CollegeSSPlayer ProfileSchool: Texas A&M, Bats: R, Throws: RIt’s either Hacopian or Jared Grindlinger, depending on who you ask, although what I’ve heard lately is that the Nats have cooled a little on Grindlinger given just how much projection is required for a 17-year-old two-way player who hasn’t begun to fill out. Hacopian’s a very safe bet as a hitter, although the lack of a position is a concern.Bio InfoHeight6-1Weight210PositionSS, 3BDOB08-30-04Position Player4-Year CollegeSS3BPlayer ProfileSchool: LSU, Bats: L, Throws: LThe Angels threw a huge wrench in the works by letting GM Perry Minasian go, as he’d almost entirely taken college players during his time as GM and was focused on guys who could get to the majors quickly. Now it’s in the hands of the scouting department, which is a good thing for the Angels, given their spotty drafts the last few years. Beyond Curiel, I believe they’re in on Gio Rojas and Liam Peterson, could be a sleeper on Justin Lebron and should be in on Ryder Helfrick.Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight192PositionOFDOB05-24-05Position Player4-Year CollegeOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Florida, Bats: R, Throws: RThe Cardinals have had success already since upping their pitching development game two winters ago, and Peterson is similar to their top two picks from last year — guys with premium stuff and arm strength who need some help with pitch “shapes.” I’ve heard them tied to Pittsburgh-area high school infielder Luke Williams for their second pick.Bio InfoHeight6-5Weight205PositionRHPDOB06-10-05Pitcher4-Year CollegeRHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Alabama, Bats: R, Throws: RThe Marlins have gone for upside in the last two drafts, although they shifted from leading off with two high schoolers in 2024 — neither of whom has hit in pro ball — to a very college-heavy approach last year. I suspect the focus is a college bat here, but that’s also because almost any college arm of merit here is either hurt or a reach.Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight180PositionSSDOB11-03-04Position Player4-Year CollegeSSPlayer ProfileSchool: Christ Church Episcopal (Greenville, SC), Bats: L, Throws: RLowrance has been the flavor of the month for … a month, I suppose. He finished strongly and is earning some wild comparisons to guys like Freddie Freeman or Kris Bryant. It seems like his market is something like picks 15-20. I think Arizona is also in on some of the next tier of college bats, like Zion Rose or Chris Rembert.Bio InfoHeight6-5Weight200Position3BDOB09-19-07Position PlayerHigh School3BPlayer ProfileSchool: Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS, Bats: L, Throws: LI believe Grindlinger goes in the teens, and the Rangers have never hesitated to aim very high on potential in the draft, college or high school. I’ve also heard them with Justin Lebron, and my own instinct tells me they could easily go after one of the high-risk college arms like Hunter Dietz or Logan Reddemann.Bio InfoHeight6-3Weight180PositionOF, LHPDOB04-16-09Position Player/PitcherHigh SchoolOFLHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Georgia, Bats: R, Throws: RJackson won the Golden Spikes Award and his huge finish seems like it’s powering him towards a first-round selection, probably in the back half somewhere.Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight200PositionC, OFDOB11-24-04Position Player4-Year CollegeCOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Arkansas, Bats: R, Throws: RThis pick says more about Helfrick than the Reds, although I will say that Cincinnati has typically been happy to take players who should have gone higher and fell to them in the last several years, and that would be the case if Helfrick is still on the board at 18.Bio InfoHeight6-1Weight210PositionCDOB02-17-05Position Player4-Year CollegeCPlayer ProfileSchool: Auburn, Bats: R, Throws: RRembert is very much Cleveland’s type — he’s young for the class and models very well, with above-average figures in hard contact categories as well as whiff and chase metrics. I could see them with Zion Rose, or if they go pitching with Cole Carlon or Tegan Kuhns. They have gone high school in the first round as recently as 2023, but I haven’t heard them with prep names yet.Bio InfoHeight5-11Weight209Position2BDOB07-05-05Position Player4-Year College2BPlayer ProfileSchool: Mississippi, Bats: R, Throws: RBoston has been linked to a bunch of guys, including Rabe, Zion Rose and Bo Lowrance, three players from entirely different demographics.Bio InfoHeight6-5Weight200PositionRHPDOB08-27-04PitcherHigh SchoolRHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Southside Christian School (Simpsonville, SC), Bats: B, Throws: LEveryone’s assuming the Padres are taking a high school pitcher, and that’s what I have here, although I don’t think they’re a lock to do so unless Gio Rojas were to drop here. They’re always in on the best athletes in the class, hitters or pitchers, so Archer Horn could be a fit.Bio InfoHeight6-4Weight210PositionLHPDOB04-05-07PitcherHigh SchoolLHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Coastal Carolina, Bats: R, Throws: RThis is an opportunistic pick, as Flukey was a candidate to be a top 10 pick coming into the spring, then missed most of the year with a fractured rib.Bio InfoHeight6-6Weight210PositionRHPDOB04-13-05Pitcher4-Year CollegeRHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Louisville, Bats: R, Throws: RThe Rose-Cubs link goes back to at least May, and I think this might be his floor, although there’s a decent chance he’ll go ahead of the Cubs’ pick. I’ve heard them with some other college bats, including AJ Gracia and Chris Rembert; I wonder if they’d be on Logan Hughes, a high-performing college bat with strong batted-ball data.Bio InfoHeight6-1Weight200PositionOFDOB05-26-05Position Player4-Year CollegeOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Virginia, Bats: L, Throws: LI’d heard the Mariners wanted a high school pitcher after the success they’ve had with Ryan Sloan, but I don’t think that’s going to happen with this pick. I don’t think they’re averse to taking a high school hitter, though.Bio InfoHeight6-3Weight195PositionOFDOB10-27-04Position Player4-Year CollegeOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Mississippi State, Bats: L, Throws: RReese fits some of the Brewers’ recent high picks, as he grades out a little better in the model than he does on the field, similar to recent selections Andrew Fischer and Eric Brown. That said, they’ve gone in all directions with recent high picks, including taking a high school pitcher at 33 in 2023 (the recently returned Josh Knoth).Bio InfoHeight6-4Weight220Position3BDOB04-13-05Position Player4-Year College3BPlayer ProfileSchool: Etowah High School (Woodstock, Ga.), Bats: L, Throws: RWhat Atlanta does here depends quite a bit on who they take and what they spend at pick 9, but I’ve heard them with high school players here, bat or arm.Bio InfoHeight5-11Weight175PositionOFDOB01-09-08Position PlayerHigh SchoolOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Texas Tech, Bats: L, Throws: LNot much intel yet on the Mets other than that I’ve heard them a little more on position players than pitchers.Bio InfoHeight5-11Weight197PositionOFDOB04-27-05Position Player4-Year CollegeOFPlayer ProfileSchool: Arizona State, Bats: L, Throws: LAnother opportunistic pick, as Carlon’s the best college lefty in the class but seems to be getting very little traction in the rumor mill right now.Bio InfoHeight6-5Weight230PositionLHPDOB05-20-05Pitcher4-Year CollegeLHPPlayer ProfileSchool: St. Ignatius College Prep (San Francisco), Bats: L, Throws: RIf the Giants end up not going over slot at pick 4, they’ve been linked to Horn and Tyler Spangler, both local high school kids who are likely to want first-round money to sign.Bio InfoHeight6-2Weight205PositionSS, RHPDOB02-02-08Position Player/PitcherHigh SchoolSSRHPPlayer ProfileSchool: Lyons Township HS (La Grange, Ill.), Bats: R, Throws: RIf the Royals take a college guy at 6, likely under slot, it would be to allow them to go over slot at picks 30 and 56, both of which are in the range when the best high school players are likely to get picked (with more college names going in the top 20). I haven’t heard them specifically with him, but Landon Thome would fit here; the whole world thinks the White Sox want to get Thome down to pick 41.Bio InfoHeight6-5Weight215PositionRHPDOB04-03-08PitcherHigh SchoolRHPAs is the case every year, there are always some well-regarded prospects who don’t show up in these mock drafts. Regarding some names you might have expected to see on here but didn’t — and to be clear, omitting a player doesn’t mean I think he stinks, or that there’s no way he goes in the first 30 picks — here are a few explanations: