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South African e-commerce is entering a new phase ― one where the retailer that best understands customer needs and connects shoppers with the most relevant products will win. Our own research shows that sessions involving search are projected to increase from just 5% in 2021 to 29% in 2026, a 480% increase. Customers are using search as their primary discovery tool, signalling a move away from browse-led shopping towards intent-led shopping.Consumers want platforms to quickly identify what is most relevant to them.This shift matters because it changes how retailers compete. For years success was driven by product range, pricing, convenience and fulfilment. Those factors remain important, but they are no longer sufficient on their own. Increasingly, competitive advantage lies in helping customers find the right product with the least effort.In many ways, retailers are now competing against experiences consumers encounter elsewhere online. Platforms such as Netflix, TikTok and YouTube have trained users to expect relevant recommendations and personalised content from the moment they engage.Those expectations are shaping online shopping behaviour.Research from McKinsey & Company has found that consumers expect personalisation and that companies delivering it effectively generate faster revenue growth than their peers. At the same time, generative AI is accelerating consumer expectations around relevance, recommendation and speed.This is creating a new competitive battleground: discovery.Historically, retailers focused on helping customers navigate large catalogues. Increasingly, customers expect retailers to do the discovery work for them. The businesses that best predict intent are likely to outperform those that simply offer the widest selection.Across the sector, retailers are investing in smarter search, recommendation engines, personalised browsing and size-matching technology. The goal is not simply personalisation. It is to shorten the path between intent and purchase.This shift has important implications for the economics of online retail. Traditionally, retailers have focused heavily on driving traffic and increasing conversion rates. But as discovery becomes more intelligent, the distinction between marketing, merchandising and search begins to disappear.The goal is not simply personalisation. It is to shorten the path between intent and purchase.The product a customer ultimately purchases is influenced before they ever reach a category page. Recommendations, personalised search results and AI-driven product rankings are shaping purchase decisions earlier in the customer journey. In effect, the digital shopfront is becoming dynamic, with each shopper seeing a different version of the same retail environment.This places greater value on first-party customer data, machine learning capabilities and the ability to interpret behavioural signals in real time. Retailers that can understand not only what customers are buying but also what they are likely to need next will be better positioned to drive repeat purchases and increase customer lifetime value.For retailers, the challenge is no longer simply attracting customers to the platform. It is reducing the friction between intent and action. As AI capabilities continue to mature, consumers will judge online shopping experiences not by how many products are available, but by how quickly and accurately the right product is surfaced.The commercial impact is becoming measurable. Our own A/B testing found that AI-driven personalisation initiatives increased average revenue per user by 27.1%. AI-powered search increased revenue by 14.1%, while personalised browsing increased revenue by 16.7%.These findings reinforce a broader trend: consumers are not necessarily looking for more choice. They are looking for greater confidence that the choices presented to them are the right ones.South Africa’s e-commerce market continues to grow rapidly. According to the World Wide Worx and Mastercard Online Retail in South Africa 2025 report, online retail sales reached R96bn in 2024, up 35% year on year, and now account for about 10% of total retail spend.As competition intensifies and customer acquisition costs rise, retailers will need to find new ways to differentiate. That differentiation will come from understanding intent better than competitors.The next phase of e-commerce growth will not be won by the retailer with the biggest catalogue it will be won by the retailer that makes discovery effortless.• Noble is CEO of My Runway.
