When he steps off the plane in Ankara for this week’s NATO summit, it will be Donald Trump's first trip to Turkey since he regained the White House.As it happens, Turkish president Erdogan has been something of a long-term ally, not least because they share a vision of a multi-polar world and agree that the nation state still matters - whatever the neo-cons like to think.But Trump and his NATO colleagues will know that the significance of Turkey goes beyond congenial conversation and mutual respect.There could hardly be a more appropriate location for the meeting than Turkey, a country that finds itself on the doorstep of not one but two major conflicts at once. Trump and Turkish president Erdogan have been allies, not least in their vision of a multi-polar world A US base in Bahrain is hit by a missile from IranThere is the continuing stand-off in the Gulf, of course, with Ankara rapidly emerging as a powerbroker in a re-shaped Middle East.Turkey has already worked behind the scenes to help end the worst of the Iran-US clashes. It is playing a major role supporting the new Syrian regime.And thanks to a vast network of pipelines stretching all the way to its Mediterranean coast, Turkey has been an alternative route for some of the many millions of barrels of oil unable to escape the blockaded Persian Gulf.Turkey will also have a major role to play in any settlement in the long-running and bloody conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a conflict taking place just on the other side of the Black Sea from Istanbul.Turkish armaments, drones in particular, have played an important part in defending Kyiv from Russian attack. Yet Ankara maintains links with Moscow all the same.The are testing times for the US, its NATO allies and relations between them.Trump is furious that – despite a lack of consultation – other NATO allies failed to play a bigger part in helping the US and Israel hit Iran. The Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, last monthWriting on his Truth Social platform, Trump said it is ‘ridiculous’ for America to continue its ‘one-sided’ relationship. ‘They were not there for us!!!’ he wrote.Yet more empty gesturing from a president sore at having gained so little from the Iranian ‘excursion’ at so much expense?It would be a mistake to think so.Trump is serious when he says that he wants Europe to take more responsibility for its own defence – and how much more is something that Western capitals might be reluctant to accept.The US has already cancelled the deployment of an armoured brigade to Poland and withdrawn an infantry brigade from Romania. It is widely understood that the US will eventually pull out of policing the Middle East, and the conflict in the Gulf will have done nothing to change its mind.Behind the scenes, the Pentagon will be appalled at the scale of damage inflicted on its bases by Iranian munitions – guided with the help of China of course.It is an open secret that the Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, will eventually set sail, saving millions of dollars a year in the process.But it is increasingly clear Trump plans the same vanishing act from Europe, too, despite an 80-year commitment to keep the Russian bear at bay.It has been a very expensive commitment, and one with potentially deadly consequences. If nothing else, the recent devastation wreaked on US facilities in the region have brought home the scale of likely damage in this new hi-tech age should American troops find themselves in the firing line.And what then for NATO and the West?Whatever the final answer, it is clear that Turkey will play a part.It is quite likely, for example, that a new NATO ‘rapid deployment force’ will be established at Adana on Turkey’s Mediterranean cost, a step towards filling the vacuum left by the departing US. Debris removed by neighbours and parishioners of an evangelical church after a Russian air bomb struck during an overnight attack in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on July 4 It is likely to be led by Turkish troops.There is already a NATO airbase there and a force based in Adana is well placed to protect the key oil and gas pipelines and port infrastructure.Then there is Turkey’s sizable arms and weapons manufacturing industry, which is already working with Spain, Portugal and Italy to the West and Saudi Arabia to the East.Turkey is currently building more than 50 warships simultaneously.Donald Trump knows this very well and I am told he is more than happy to let Turkey take up a greater share of the burden when it comes to defending the interests of Europe and the West – and a greater share of the power and prestige that comes with such a role.How will his NATO allies feel about such a dramatic change? We will see in the next few days.But my prediction is that mere ‘feelings’ won’t come into it.