Russian military losses in Ukraine have increased sharply in recent months, driven largely by Ukraine's expanding use of combat drones, according to a new analysis by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The study estimates that Russia has suffered around 1.4 million military casualties, including those killed, wounded, or missing, since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukrainian losses are estimated at between 525,000 and 625,000 personnel. CSIS calculates that Russian military deaths stand at between 400,000 and 450,000, compared with 125,000 to 150,000 Ukrainian fatalities. In January, the think tank had placed Russian fatalities at roughly 325,000.
According to the analysis, the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties, which generally ranged between 2:1 and 3:1 during most of the war, has climbed to nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026. Researchers attribute the shift primarily to Ukraine's increasingly sophisticated use of drones, which they say has significantly altered battlefield dynamics.
The report argues that Russia's battlefield costs continue to grow, with monthly military losses now exceeding the number of new recruits entering its armed forces. It also concludes that Moscow's offensive has slowed considerably. For the first time in years, Russian forces failed to expand the territory under their control during the first half of 2026, while recording net territorial losses of roughly 400 square kilometers in April and May. The pace of Russian advances along the more than 1,000-kilometer front has also declined, with Ukrainian forces regaining ground in some areas.
