The contractThe Toronto Maple Leafs signed goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to a three-year, $21 million contract.Dominik Luszczyszyn: There are two things Leafs fans should immediately keep in mind with this signing.The first thing is something that happened nearly a decade ago: Patrick Marleau signing with the Leafs on a three-year deal in 2017. Immediately, it was the addition of the third year that stuck out for a player who was 38 at the time. Marleau had already shown signs of decline going into that season, so the third year looked especially worrying. Things played out exactly as expected and the Leafs needed to attach a first-round pick to get out of the final year of the deal in a trade.The second thing is something that happened this June: that first-round pick — Seth Jarvis in 2020 — became a Stanley Cup champion. And the goaltenders of record for the Cup-winning Hurricanes in that series? Frederik Andersen and Brandon Bussi, who make a combined $3.5 million — half of what Bobrovsky will be paid. The money spent by the league’s savviest organization was kept where it matters: with an elite group of skaters.Those are the two lessons, and they are the two major issues with Toronto’s Bobrovsky bet: term and goaltending cap hit. And well, that doesn’t leave a whole lot that the Leafs got correct here.On the term front, that third year is terrifying. Goalies don’t age quite the same as skaters, sure, but we already have hints that Bobrovsky is already on the decline. Last season, he was one of the league’s absolute worst goalies, and if you’re looking for the reason Florida missed the playoffs, he was a major contributor as he allowed 17.6 goals more than expected.Can he bounce back? Sure. Goalies are notoriously tough to predict and Bobrovsky has a ton of pedigree over the last decade. But this isn’t the first season that he’s been below average, a one-off. It’s now two in a row, and that trend is a red flag.It’s telling that the Panthers moved on here. It’s telling that the Hurricanes aren’t spending this kind of money on goalies. It’s telling that the Colorado Avalanche found their goalies on the scrap heap via trade. If those are three of the league’s smartest teams, it’s telling that they don’t make decisions like this one.That’s where the cap-hit issue comes in. The Leafs have space, but they would’ve been much better served using it where it matters: on a still underwhelming forward group that doesn’t have the depth to compete with any of those top teams.With goalies being so difficult to predict, it’s always better to spend money elsewhere, where you have a better idea of what you’re getting. Unless that goalie is a sure thing, it’s not worth it — and there aren’t a whole lot of sure things. Bobrovsky, after a season in which he was among the league’s worst goalies, certainly isn’t one of them.