After allocating lower monthly sugar quotas for domestic sales since March, the Centre appears to have decided to maintain July supplies at last year's level. The Food Ministry has allocated 22 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar for domestic sale in July, unchanged from the corresponding month last year.With the July allocation, the cumulative domestic quota for the 2025-26 sugar season (October-September) has reached 223 lt, about 3 per cent lower than the 229.5 lt allocated during the same period last season.Data show that during the first 10 months of the current season, monthly quotas were lower than the year-ago level in seven months and unchanged in the remaining three.Under the July 2026 release order, sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh have been allocated 8.23 lt, down 9 per cent from a year ago. In contrast, Maharashtra has received 7.18 lt, up 8.5 per cent, while Karnataka has been allotted 3.18 lt, a 31 per cent increase. Other States together have been allocated 3.41 lt, about 12 per cent lower than a year earlier.Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka together account for 75-80 per cent of India's sugar production.Retail sugar prices have risen to around ₹50/kg in the Delhi-NCR region from ₹46/kg a few months ago. However, Consumer Affairs Ministry data show the all-India average retail price stood at ₹47/kg on June 30, compared with ₹46.54/kg on September 30, 2025. The average wholesale price was ₹4,363.68 per quintal on June 30, against ₹4,317.63 per quintal at the end of September last year.The government abruptly banned sugar exports on May 13 until September 30 to rein in domestic prices. Earlier, it had permitted exports of 15.9 lt for the 2025-26 season, of which about 6 lt had been shipped by the end of March. Industry estimates, however, suggest actual exports may have reached around 8 lt, as consignments that had completed customs formalities before the ban were allowed to be shipped.The Directorate General of Foreign Trade's notification specified that the export ban will lapse on September 30, unless extended.No exports likelyIndustry sources said maintaining July's domestic quota at last year's level indicates there is little likelihood of export permissions in the next season, given the absence of a significant increase in sugarcane acreage and concerns over a possible El Niño impact on yields."The government has made it clear that the first priority is domestic availability, followed by supplies for ethanol production. Only any surplus after meeting these two requirements will be considered for exports," an industry source said, adding that sugar exports in 2026-27 are "practically ruled out."India faced a sugar shortage in 2022-23, prompting restrictions on exports. Despite a bumper crop in 2023-24, no exports were permitted. In 2024-25, the country exported 9 lt against the permitted quota of 10 lt.India's net sugar production in 2025-26 is estimated at around 280 lt (excluding sugar diverted for ethanol), roughly matching annual domestic consumption. Although output is expected to improve from 261 lt in the previous season, it remains below the industry's earlier expectation of more than 300 lt.Published on July 1, 2026