AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTYou have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load.ImageJames Talarico received positive ratings on every question asked in the survey. Credit...Antranik Tavitian for The New York TimesDemocrats haven’t won a statewide contest in Texas in decades, but the latest New York Times/Siena poll suggests there’s a real opportunity for Democrats to break the losing streak this November.In the Senate race, the Democrat James Talarico and the Republican Ken Paxton are tied at 47 percent. That’s the best result for Democrats in nearly a decade of Times/Siena polling of Texas. You can read my colleagues’ full story on the results here.Just about everything would need to go right for Democrats to win a state that President Trump won by 14 percentage points in 2024 — and, so far, everything has. The poll finds Democrats benefiting from a favorable national political environment, and a favorable matchup between an unpopular Republican and popular Democratic nominee. Alone, none of it is enough for Democrats to win Texas. Together, it adds up to a tossup.It also corresponds with an enormous reversal of Republican fortune among Hispanic voters, who backed Mr. Talarico by a wide margin, 61-29, in the poll. This is a huge reversion from 2024, when the Hispanic vote was essentially tied, according to our estimates.At least some of that Republican strength was bound to fade even if Democrats didn’t flip a single Trump voter. That’s because Mr. Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters — which were enormous in their own right — were concentrated among irregular voters, many of whom turned out for a presidential election but are likely to stay home in November for the midterms.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT