That uptick in oil prices meant inflation concerns crept back in a bit yesterday on both sides of the Atlantic. So the US 1yr inflation swap (+4.5bps) was back up to 2.14%, from a 20-month low on Friday. And in turn, investors priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting up +1.4bps on the day to 33bps. So that led to another rise in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield (+1.4bps) up to 4.11%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.5bps) moved up to 4.38%. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there was a similar pickup in bond yields across the continent. That was partly because of the oil move, but we also started to get the flash CPI prints for June, with Spain’s release surprising on the upside yesterday. It showed CPI unexpectedly remaining +3.6% (vs. +3.4% expected), which added to concerns that the other prints might come in on the stronger side too, and that the ECB would need to keep hiking rates. Indeed, market pricing moved in a slightly hawkish direction, with 27bps of hikes now priced by the December meeting, up +2.6bps on the day. And in turn, yields on 2yr bunds (+2.1bps) moved higher, while those across 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+0.5bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) were more stable. Here in the UK, gilts were a relative outperformer, with the 10yr yield falling -1.5bps to 4.72%. That came as the favourite to be next PM, Andy Burnham, delivered a speech outlining some of his plans, which included a commitment to stick to the current fiscal rules. So that reassured investors who were concerned about looser fiscal policy, and there was also some underwhelming UK data as well. For instance, mortgage approvals for May fell more than expected to 56.2k (vs. 63.0k expected), which is their lowest since December 2023. Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the flash June CPI prints from Germany, France, and Italy, along with German unemployment for June. Meanwhile, US releases include the JOLTS report for May, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June, and the FHFA’s house price index for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic, Elderson, Schnabel, Cipollone and Lane, along with the BoE’s Breeden. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Nike.