Progressive insurgency hits Colorado primaries. Should incumbents be worried?

Colorado's primary has Democratic incumbents fighting off challenges ranging from progressive newcomers to state lawmakers seeking higher office.Show Caption

Democratic socialist Melat Kiros is mounting a significant challenge against 15-term U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette in a closely watched primary race.Colorado's Democratic gubernatorial primary has tightened, with Sen. Michael Bennet facing a late surge from Attorney General Phil Weiser.Democratic incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper is being challenged by progressive Colorado state Sen. Julie Gonzales for his Senate seat.The wave of progressive candidates challenging mainstream Democrats may drown Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper in Colorado's June 30 primaries.Bennet is seeking to become Colorado's governor, while Hickenlooper is running for reelection, and neither is assured of victory.A week after a trio of dramatic wins by left-leaning congressional candidates in New York against incumbents and establishment picks, Bennet is trying to stave off Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has outraised him and is surging in polls. Meanwhile, Hickenlooper is facing progressive Colorado state Sen. Julie Gonzales, who is challenging him from the left in the Democrat-dominated state.And in the Denver-based 1st Congressional District, Melat Kiros, a self-described democratic socialist, is trying to upend incumbent 15-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, Colorado's longest-serving member of Congress."The mood everywhere is anti-incumbent and pro-populism/disruption, and you can see it here, even though the state has trended reliably Democratic," said Kyle Saunders, a longtime political science professor at Colorado State University.Democratic socialist Kiros is giving DeGette an unprecedented challenge for CongressIn a race that's getting national attention, DeGette is facing the toughest test in her nearly three decades in Congress from a challenger who wasn't even born when the 15-term incumbent first took office.Kiros, a 29-year-old political newcomer, is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont. Sanders, a democratic socialist who caucuses with the Democrats, describes Kiros as "exactly the kind of bold leader" who "knows that the current political and economic systems are broken and need bold reform."DeGette, 68, was an impeachment manager in the second impeachment trial of President Donald Trump in 2021. She is currently in line to become the top Democrat on the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee.A former Colorado state lawmaker and civil rights attorney, DeGette was first elected in 1996 and has won reelection by wide margins ever since. The heavily Democratic district hasn't sent a Republican to Congress since 1970.Kiros, whose parents immigrated to Colorado from Ethiopia when she was a toddler, began her congressional campaign last year after losing her job as an associate at a New York securities law firm after she posted a public letter defending critics of Israel’s military action in Gaza from accusations of antisemitism in November 2023. She has worked part-time as a barista while pursuing a doctorate in public affairs at the University of Colorado-Denver since returning to Colorado.While Israel has become a flashpoint in this race, DeGette’s greatest vulnerability is ultimately her long tenure in Congress, Erin Covey, the House of Representatives editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which forecasts U.S. elections, told USA TODAY."The generational component intensifies the ideological contrast between the two of them," Covey said.DeGette narrowly qualified for the June primary ballot, coming in second to Kiros during the 1st District Democratic assembly in March. In Colorado, candidates need at least 30% of the vote at the preprimary party assembly to earn ballot access, and DeGette received just 33% compared to Kiros' 67%."Kiros was able to sneak up on her, a clear warning sign that there was real energy behind Kiros' campaign, and DeGette was caught off guard by it," Covey said.Polls overall anticipate a tight race, including a June 19 survey by the news site Zeteo showing DeGette trailing Kiros 41% to 36%."The safe-seat bargain was always keep your head down, don't embarrass anybody, and the seat's yours until you decide to leave," Saunders said. "Kiros is calling that a bad deal, and enough Democratic voters are nodding along that DeGette is sweating in late June."Kiros is hoping she can capture the momentum similar to the victorious congressional slate endorsed by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, which included Brad Lander, Darializa Avila Chevalier, and Claire Valdez, a trio who favored abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and labeled Israel's actions in Gaza a genocide.Sanders' endorsement could prove big for Kiros to separate herself from University of Colorado Regent and business owner Wanda James, who's also running for DeGette's spot and promises similar changes, Saunders noted."It's the Colorado version of the energy that's powered the New York primaries, but with a Colorado twist: because Kiros and James are both chasing the 'change vote,' they may split it, and hand DeGette a plurality win," Saunders said.Though Colorado leans Democratic, the former swing state has an independent streak. Roughly half of the state’s voters are unaffiliated with either party, and they are allowed to vote in primaries, which can make it harder for more extreme candidates."Colorado's semi-open primary lets unaffiliated voters in, which could dilute exactly the kind of closed-primary base mobilization that fueled an upset in New York," Saunders said.Will Bennet withstand a late surge?In the race for Colorado's Democratic gubernatorial nomination, three-term Sen. Michael Bennet is attempting to beat state Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has out-fundraised him and is climbing in the polls in the contest to succeed term-limited Gov. Jared Polis.Democrats have won every Rocky Mountain State gubernatorial election since 2008.Bennet once had a 27-point lead in a Keating Research poll in February, but the race is now tight: one poll in May conducted by Colorado Community Research had Weiser ahead of Bennet by seven points, and another poll conducted in June by Public Policy Polling had Bennet ahead by six points.With close to a fifth of the electorate still undecided, those knocking on doors in the final hours seeking votes could decide the outcome.Saunders said the race is "a genuine toss-up" but Bennet is still "the safer bet" due to better name recognition, a deeper network, and far more money in his orbit."But this race has tightened enough that he has to sweat it," Saunders said.Matthew Klein, an elections analyst, wrote for the Cook Political Report on June 23 that this race for governor has featured "increasingly bitter attacks" less centered on specific policies and more about which candidate has "the chutzpah" — a Yiddish word meaning audacity — to push back against Trump."Though Bennet is framing himself as a champion for change, his long tenure in an unproductive Congress may be a handicap among Democratic voters who are increasingly frustrated with the status quo," Klein said.Bennet is known as a centrist Democrat. He was among the "Gang of Eight," a bipartisan group that created a sweeping immigration reform bill in 2013, and was a key proponent of expanded Child Tax Credit. He unsuccessfully ran for president in 2020, focusing on restoring integrity in government and economic mobility.While Weiser had raised more money ($6.4 million) than Benett ($4.6 million) in direct campaign donations, according to the Colorado Secretary of State’s office, at the start of June, Saunders said both candidates were on a record pace for funding thanks to outside interests.The Bennet-aligned super PAC, Rocky Mountain Way, has banked roughly $10.3 million, several times more than the pro-Weiser PAC. Most of that has come from billionaire and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, a centrist billionaire Democrat who was first elected as a Republican, then as an independent.Can Hickenlooper hang on to his Senate seat?Hickenlooper, a former Colorado governor and Denver mayor, seeking reelection to the Senate after one term, is being challenged in the Democratic primary by progressive Colorado state Sen. Julie Gonzales, 43, who argues a younger voice is needed. The 74-year-old Hickenlooper, who has a sizable fundraising advantage, is still favored to win, according to Saunders.A former petroleum geologist and brewpub owner, Hickenlooper has called himself an “extreme moderate” and was known for enthusiastically supporting hydraulic fracturing, otherwise known as fracking, the controversial method of extracting natural gas and oil, as governor.Gonzales says Hickenlooper has failed to offer a "bold and fierce critique" of the Trump administration. Hickenlooper leads Gonzales 41% to 34% in the primary, according to a June 8 poll released by the Colorado Community Research, a polling firm."What (Gonzales is) doing is exposing the gap between where the Democratic base is right now and where a 74-year-old institutionalist sits," Saunders said. "Her pitch is generational change and a more confrontational posture toward Trump, and the fact that it's getting any traction at all against an incumbent of Hickenlooper's stature tells you the Democratic base is restless."Hickenlooper declined to debate Gonzales, which Saunders described as "a move of someone protecting a lead, not someone who's nervous."