Gold prices ⁠were set on Tuesday for their biggest quarterly drop since April 2013, as uncertainty in the Middle East gave way to expectations of U.S. rate hikes ‌to tame elevated inflation.Spot gold inched 0.2 per cent higher to $4,026.17 per ounce by 0732 GMT, but has shed 11.2 per cent so far ‌in June in what could be its fourth consecutive monthly ‌fall. ⁠U.S. gold futures for August delivery were steady at $4,040.60.Bullion was ⁠also set for its first quarterly fall since 2024 and the largest since the June quarter of 2013, as the Iran war sent energy prices sharply higher, fuelling ​inflation fears and bets for ‌interest rate hikes.“You have high inflation, high interest rate expectations, and a strong dollar, and that’s overriding all other bullish factors that are typically associated with a gold rally,” said Edward Meir, an ‌analyst at Marex.While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge ​against inflation, it loses its appeal in a high-interest-rate environment.Traders expect three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, and are ⁠currently pricing in about a 64 per cent chance of a September increase, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Investors are now awaiting the June ADP ‌employment and nonfarm payroll data, both due this week, to further gauge the Fed’s stance on rate hikes.The dollar was headed for a second monthly gain, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.Oil prices were on track for their sharpest quarterly decline since 2020 as investors eyed the outcome of Iranian and U.S. talks in ‌Doha this week, even as Iran said no meeting had been scheduled.“Gold bulls ​need at least one of three things to improve: lower real yields, a softer USD or a clearer unwind ⁠in hawkish Fed expectations. Without that, rallies are likely to fade and gold ⁠may spend more time consolidating below previous highs,” OCBC precious metals strategist Christopher Wong said in a note.Spot silver gained ‌1 per cent to $58.88 per ounce, platinum was steady at $1,574.75, while palladium rose 1.5 per cent to $1,232.16. However, all three metals were headed for quarterly and monthly ​losses.Published on June 30, 2026