According to a new report from Fidelity, the current downturn has the hallmarks of a crypto winter — and history points to five factors that could bring it to an end.
Fidelity notes that bitcoin has formed bull market tops and bottoms at roughly four-year intervals since 2011. With the last bear market bottom arriving in November 2022, the pattern suggests a potential floor around November 2026 — if the cycle holds. The debate over whether bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is intact remains active, and some analysts argue the bear market is nearly finished while others are less certain.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
The cycle’s engine, Fidelity explains, is bitcoin’s halving mechanism — a built-in rule that cuts mining rewards in half every four years, reducing new supply entering circulation. The most recent halving in April 2024 dropped block rewards to 3.125 BTC.
If demand holds steady or grows against a shrinking supply, prices can rise. The firm cautions, though, that the cycles have varied in length and should be used for big-picture analysis rather than precise trade timing.
