June is likely to end with about 40 per cent deficit rainfall in the current monsoon season, and any spectacular revival is unlikely over the next three months. Till June 29, India received 42 per cent deficient rainfall at 9.21 cm. Particularly in the second fortnight of the month, the gap is even wider at 47 per cent.India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted monsoon rainfall to be 90 per cent of the season’s long period average (LPA) of 86.86 cm which means 78.17 cm.If the June rainfall ends up with 10 cm, the precipitation during July-September period needs to be 68.17 cm, which is still short of 3 per cent of normal for the period.However, all models including those by IMD rule out such a revival possibility over the next three months. One model even suggests a deficit of over 50 per cent for the period.According to IMD data, the rainfall deficit until first half of the month was only 32 per cent. But the deficiency moved up to 41 per cent by June 21 and has been continuously 41-42 per cent till now.However, due to some improvement in rainfall June 28-29, and likely on June 30, the overall countrywide deficit may slightly narrow to about 39-40 per cent, said an official source.The IMD is scheduled to issue its July forecast on Tuesday. July is the wettest month of the southwest monsoon, accounting for about 32 per cent of the season’s rainfall.businessLine earlier reported that the Busan-based APEC Climate Centre (APCC) projects rainfall during July-September to be 53.8 per cent below normal, the largest shortfall forecast anywhere in Asia.Major falloutThis preserves the rainfall deficit as the lead while elevating the fertiliser issue as the first major implication of the weak monsoon.A major consequence of the depleted monsoon is a sharp reduction in fertiliser consumption, easing a major concern for the government over ensuring adequate supplies during the peak sowing period.Fertilizer sales during April 1-June 14 stood at 102.78 lakh tonnes (lt), while the estimated requirement for the entire kharif season is 390.56 lt, implying that another 281.12 lt was expected to be supplied between June 15 and September 30. However, lower-than-normal rainfall could reduce actual demand, particularly in rainfed areas.“This time the fertiliser consumption is going to be lower since it is related to monsoon rainfall particularly in rainfed areas and there is forecast of below normal precipitation. Already monsoon is delayed in several parts as a result the application of first dose of fertiliser is also delayed. But much of the usage of fertilisers will depend on sowing and continuous rainfall for a few days,” said Anil Kumar Singh, former deputy director-general of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).Published on June 29, 2026