WASHINGTON — Well, this is a lot more complicated than you or I would have guessed at the start of the year. The Nationals have an unstoppable offense and a tragic bullpen. They have one of the prizes of the deadline — CJ Abrams — but won’t feel rushed to move him. Foster Griffin, Curtis Mead and Jacob Young should also be on other team’s radars. President of baseball operations Paul Toboni must also consider what a sell-off would do to clubhouse morale, and whether a couple of relievers would truly give this team a shot to sneak into October.Record: 43-42Record this time last season: 35-50Standing: fourth in NL EastPlayoff odds: Entering Sunday, 4.4 percent (FanGraphs), 14.8 percent (Baseball Reference)If the season ended today: Eliminated from playoff contentionBiggest series between now and the deadline: Will play the Yankees for a three-game set at home, beginning July 10. It’s the final series before the break, and should crystallize what direction Toboni and Co. will take.
Current needs: The farm system and the bullpen. Washington is still taking the long view, and while the farm has improved, there is more work to do, especially on the mound. That said, this team would be in postseason position now if not for a bullpen that is set to shatter the blown saves record. Someone reliable is needed in the ninth.History says: The Nationals have sold, but this is a new front office. They are savvy enough to know this isn’t a finished product. That suggests they will sell some pieces off. The only question is how many, and whether they will simultaneously buy, too.What will determine what they do: If the Nats right the ship after a disastrous series against the Phillies, it’s hard to see Abrams departing, save for the Godfather offer of all Godfather offers. Maybe they’d even add a reliever, too.What should they do: Somewhere in-between, leaning towards selling. This team has minuscule odds to make the postseason. They should set up to compete in 2028 — or even 2027 — and beyond. Unless they get an all-time offer for Abrams, the only subtractions should be players who do not fit in the long-term future. They should look to add value wherever it makes sense, though pitching prospects are a priority. If there is a controllable reliever who they can acquire for prospects they don’t believe strongly in — and boy, is that one of the biggest ifs I’ve ever written — that addition could make sense.
