A season ago, Penn State collapsed from its preseason national-championship expectations to finish 7-6 after a win in the Pinstripe Bowl over Clemson.In the process, James Franklin was fired after an 0-3 start to Big Ten play, as the Nittany Lions hit their floor in 2025. Since then, Matt Campbell has taken over the program, and if everything goes right this upcoming season, a spot in the College Football Playoff could be Penn State’s ceiling.But what if Year 1 under Campbell goes wrong and the Nittany Lions visit their floor again? Last year’s team went 6-6 in the regular season despite the coaching change, but we’re setting this team’s floor slightly higher at 7-5.What needs to go sideways for that to happen? Let’s explore the other side of Penn State’s 2026 season.What games could Penn State lose?Penn State Nittany Lion players sing their alma mater following a 2025 loss to the Northwestern Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn ImagesPenn State has a relatively easy schedule for its first season with Campbell. In fact, ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranked its strength of schedule 59th nationally, which is the lowest in the Big Ten.It could take a couple of weeks into the season for the Nittany Lions to potentially lose a game. The non-conference slate of Marshall, Temple and Buffalo is followed by the Big Ten opener at home against Wisconsin, which went 4-8 last year.Penn State’s Oct. 2 game at Northwestern might be the team’s first realistic challenge. The Nittany Lions could get caught looking ahead to their matchup with USC the following week, which is likely to be the White Out.The game against the Trojans also kicks off a tougher stretch of the schedule, as USC has an overall SP+ rating of 16.8. The Nittany Lions (15.6 overall SP+ rating) continue on with a road test at Michigan (16).After facing Purdue, Penn State has another possibly difficult test with a road game at Washington on Nov. 7. It will close out the regular season against Minnesota, Rutgers and Maryland. If they lose one game in that stretch, it most likely would be to the Golden Gophers.The Nittany Lions have a favorable schedule that should prevent losses from piling up. But the 2025 team also faced winless UCLA as a 25.5-point favorite. And we know how that went.For Penn State this season, avoiding upsets is crucial. The team could be favored in as many as 10 games, and it begins and ends the season with seven winnable games. Those middle five games vs. USC, Michigan, Purdue, Washington and Minnesota will define the season. What problems could arise?Penn State Nittany Lions coach Matt Campbell looks on from behind the line of scrimmage during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn ImagesIf Penn State hits its floor this season, several position groups most likely will be responsible. In particular, the defensive line will have a new look and more questions heading into fall camp.At defensive end, the Nittany Lions lack a true No. 1 edge rusher, and they’ll likely have to bank on a younger player stepping up in Alexander McPherson, Yvan Kemajou or Max Granville. In the interior, Armstrong Nnodim could have a breakout year, but the team will rely on veterans Siale Taupaki and Keanu Williams.Offensively, there could be concerns with the run game, as the running back room lacks starting experience in the Big Ten. Iowa State transfer Carson Hansen totaled 952 rushing yards in the Big 12 last year, but the Big Ten has tougher defensive lines. James Peoples played a reserve role for the Ohio State Buckeyes the past two years.Penn State’s offensive line also faces a rebuild. Anthony Donkoh is the only returning starter, is moving back to tackle from guard, and will be playing alongside three first-time Penn State starters. They’ll be playing catch-up with chemistry, especially early on in the season.This will also be Campbell’s first year in the Big Ten. It’s possible the year doesn’t go his way as he settles in as a head coach in the conference. Could injuries cause losses?Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on from the field during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn ImagesPenn State will benefit from having one of the Big Ten’s most experienced rosters, but also one with little margin for error regarding injuries. Particularly at quarterback, where the backup situation is a red flag.Redshirt freshman Alex Manske missed spring ball due to injury but is set to be ready for fall camp, and senior Connor Barry is making the jump from Division III to the Big Ten. Last season, Penn State had to play backup Ethan Grunkemeyer when Drew Allar sustained a season-ending injury against Northwestern. If the Nittany Lions are in a similar situation this year, they’ll have to rely on Manske or Barry.Rocco Becht was limited in spring practices while he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery. While he’s set to start, his limited participation allowed Barry to take a significant number of first-team reps. Campbell said that Barry was among the pleasant surprises of spring practice. He’s still making a huge leap from Christopher Newport in Virginia to Penn State. Meanwhile, Manske was Becht’s backup at Iowa State last year but attempted only five passes. Penn State’s offense is in trouble if Becht were to miss any time this upcoming season.Elsewhere, linebacker Tony Rojas and safety Jeremiah Cooper are projected starters returning from torn ACLs. They have healthy expectations but still need time to get into playing shape after missing spring practice. In fact, Penn State’s overall injury situation during spring drills (about 30 players were out or limited) led Campbell to ask a few questions of his roster.“Are we ready? Are we capable?” Campbell said after spring practice ended. “We had a lot of injuries, and a lot of guys didn't practice this spring, so did we gain real momentum? I think this is a team that, if it’s going to reach its full potential, it's going to have to be able to be its best.“Sometimes being your best is being a little lucky with injuries, being groomed to be its best physically and play its best in critical moments. I think those things are still out there. Like, what kind of team are we really? I think fall camp will tell us a lot more about who we are and where we're at.”Sign up to our free Penn State Nittany Lions newsletter and follow us on social media.Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollow