2 years, zero returns: Is it time for Nifty investors to be fearful or greedy?

After a wild, multi-year round trip that saw the Nifty 50 peak near 26,277 in late September 2024, tumble on global tariff shocks, recover to 26,373 in January 2026, and slide back to 24,000 zone amid US-Israel-Iran conflict fears, long-term investors find themselves sitting on flat-to-negative returns over a two-year horizon.

After a round trip of two years, Nifty is back to where it was in June-end 2024.But before panic sets in, let’s check the history books.

Every comparable episode in which Nifty delivered near-zero returns over a two-year stretch was followed by meaningful recovery.

Across eleven such periods since 2001, one-year post-stagnation returns ranged from 5% to 50%, shows data by Edelweiss Mutual Fund.After a similar stagnation from June 2001–June 2003, the next one-year return was 33%, three-year CAGR hit 40%.

The July 2018–July 2020 stagnation delivered 42% in the following year.