A couple of weeks ago, I was talking to a senior Reform insider about the unseemly social media spat between the party's economic spokesman Robert Jenrick and its self-styled shadow home secretary Zia Yusuf. Yusuf had angrily slapped down Jenrick for an intervention he had made on his favoured territory of immigration.What was behind the fracas, I asked. 'The war to succeed Nigel is starting,' they said. 'There's a growing view inside the party that he won't be leading us into the next election. He's looking worn down. People are starting to plan.'The headlines over the past week have obviously been dominated by the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer and the impending coronation of the King of the North, Andy Burnham. But within Westminster there is a question ministers, MPs and journalists have been asking each other with increasing regularity: 'What's going on with Nigel Farage?'The morning after the parliamentary by-elections in Makerfield, Aberdeen and Arbroath, I was contacted by a member of the Tory party's research team.'Farage has just been saying how pleased he is Reform came second in Arbroath,' he said. 'So?' I queried. 'Reform didn't come second,' he replied. 'We did.'For a major party leader to make a social media post in response to a series of crucial national by-elections, and not even know their own party's result, was bizarre.The fact his team allowed him to do so without correction was even more bizarre. And it simply feeds into the growing narrative that Farage and his party are starting to lose their touch, and their way.That narrative was given rocket-boosters when Farage appeared on the Tuesday media round to mark the tenth anniversary of Brexit. What should have been an easy morning basking in the glory of his 2016 triumph turned into a 100-vehicle pile-up as he squirmed, deflected and procrastinated over the mysterious £5million gift he'd received from a shadowy Thai crypto-billionaire.As one Farage ally conceded: 'OK, that wasn't his finest hour.'But the issue isn't a bad hour – or three – on the breakfast broadcast slots. Behind the scenes, even Reform MPs, advisers and funders have started to query if their leader is in it for the long haul.One issue relates to whether or not the physical demands of leading his party virtually single-handed are finally starting to catch up with the grandfather of British populism, who has hitherto seemed indestructible.One pointed to the way he had twice cancelled – in quick succession – planned appearances on the BBC's flagship Laura Kuenssberg show. 'That's a big audience. And he usually revels in those outings. Missing one is fine. But two? That's not like him.' According to reports, Farage has told allies he wants to take a break from working at weekends. As one friend told me: 'He's been working flat out for two years, from the general election through to the local elections. He's earned a bit of down time.'That view is shared by his colleague David Bull.On Friday, the former Reform chairman said in an interview: 'Politics is a ruthless business, and I think also one of the other things I would say as a friend and a colleague is he needs to take some time out and have a bit of a break.'But there may well be other reasons for Farage's shift of focus. Before the Iran war, he was spending a significant amount of time in Dubai, meeting potential Reform donors. He is also reported to have spent time visiting his close confidant George Cottrell, who is based in Montenegro. And, according to a friend, he is not solely focusing on his party when he meets wealthy financiers.'Nigel understands politics is precarious. He has to think of his future, and his family's future. Within Westminster there is a question ministers, MPs and journalists have been asking each other with increasing regularity: 'What's going on with Nigel Farage?''This £5million row is rubbish. He's being very careful to stay within all the rules.'But no one owes him a living. And he's not going to be in demand for ever.'Another Reform source pointed away from Montenegro and the Middle East, to across the Atlantic. Few people understand just how significant Farage's relationship with Donald Trump is – or has been – to Reform's leader. It goes beyond the political.I'm told the experience of walking into Trump's Mar-a-Lago beach club and being feted by the leader of the free world is up there with the greatest moments of Nigel Farage's life.But now that alliance is drawing to a close. 'There's already been a bit of a distancing,' one Farage ally reveals. 'And Nigel knows that relationship is not going to be there for much longer. Trump's going to be gone before the next election. He won't have that to lean on any more.'Farage's team reject any suggestion that he is thinking of stepping back from his role before the next election.'You must be off your head,' one adviser told me. 'Nigel has just won 1,000 councillors in the local elections. He's just seen off Keir Starmer. We're ahead in the polls. Why would he jack it all in?'But other allies concede there are now serious issues that need to be addressed at the heart of Farage's party.'The problem is that the professionalisation project has stalled,' one revealed to me.'A few months ago everyone conceded everything was too centralised around Nigel. And he was up for changing that. But nothing has happened. There's drift.'Zia is fighting for control. Others are fighting for control. So no one's in charge.'There was talk about Nigel appointing a new chief of staff. But that's run into the sand.'It's possible all the speculation is wrong. Nigel Farage may simply need a couple of weeks off to recharge his batteries before returning refreshed to renew the fight with the despised political establishment.But there is no doubt that within Reform, people are starting to think the unthinkable. What would life be like without the man who has spent the last two decades embodying the struggle against the British elite?And they don't like what they're seeing. 'We've quietly run some numbers,' one Reform source told me, 'and they don't look good'.'The truth is none of the others – Rob Jenrick, Zia Yusuf, Lee Anderson or Suella Braverman – have anything like Nigel's reach. Yes, he's polarising. But our core supporters love him. And it's not easy to see how we'd replace him.'Within Westminster there is growing speculation Nigel Farage will not lead Reform into the next election. If that proves correct, it could create a political earthquake that would surpass any of the reverberations Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham have generated over the past week.