One of the country’s most contentious Republican primaries reaches its dramatic conclusion on Saturday as Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) takes on state Treasurer John Fleming in the Louisiana Senate runoff.Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Senate leadership’s preferred candidate, won’t be on the ballot after placing third in the initial May primary.The two-way contest is now Letlow’s to lose after she cruised to a double-digit first-place victory last month, with nearly 45% of the vote to Fleming’s roughly 28%. Cassidy won under 25%.
The contest won’t play into the broader midterm battle for control of the GOP-led chamber, where Democrats need to flip four seats to regain control. The victor is all but certain to win the November general election against the Democratic nominee in the deeply red state. Two Democrats, farmer Jamie Davis and entrepreneur Gary Crockett, also face a primary runoff on Saturday.The race will help set the course for the Senate Republican Conference next year and further test President Donald Trump’s endorsement record that, for the most part, has gone his way this cycle.While conservative, Letlow is backed by more establishment figures than Fleming, a former congressman and a 2015 founder of the House Freedom Caucus. He’s a staunch conservative who, although snubbed of an endorsement from Trump, remains closely aligned with the president and served in his first administration.In a recent video posted by Letlow featuring Trump, the president urged Louisiana Republicans to “get out and vote, vote, vote” for the fourth-term congresswoman.“She’s a strong, America First conservative who has stood with me from the very, very beginning, and she’s been tested at the highest level, the most difficult level, and she’s always performed, and she is something very special,” Trump said, adding she was a “pivotal vote” in Congress to help accomplish his immigration enforcement agenda.Letlow posted on the eve of the election that, “Together, we’ll continue fighting to keep the border secure, unleash American energy, protect our freedoms, and put Louisiana first.”Fleming expressed optimism in a text to the Washington Examiner, citing a recent internal poll sponsored by his campaign, which showed him leading Letlow by 5 percentage points. However, other recent independent surveys show Letlow as the favorite.Despite Trump’s preference, Senate Republican leadership is neutral in the runoff. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and the Senate GOP’s campaign arm have not sided with Letlow or Fleming after vehemently fighting for Cassidy’s reelection, even as he faced the wrath of Trump for voting to convict the president in his impeachment trial after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.From l-r: U.S. Senate candidate, current Louisiana treasurer and former U.S. Representative (R-La.) John Fleming, speaks at a Ronald Reagan Newsmaker Luncheon in Baton Rouge, La., Tuesday, May 12, 2026, and U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Julia Letlow, R-La., speaks to supporters during an election night watch party Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Baton Rouge, La. (AP photos/Gerald Herbert/Matthew Hinton)
