That’s a wrap on day 16. World Cup favourites France and the brilliant Ousmane Dembele didn’t take it easy on Norway, claiming their third victory of the group phase and setting up a round-of-32 meeting with Sweden. Will Norway’s rested starters, including Erling Haaland, be raring to go against Ivory Coast next?Cape Verde made history as the smallest nation to ever reach the World Cup knockouts, with Lionel Messi and Argentina awaiting. They couldn’t, could they?And there was a thrilling finale to Group G — including an unusual decisive offside call in Iran’s 1-1 draw with Egypt — where Belgium thrashed New Zealand 5-1 to finish top. So how does all this shake up our rankings? 1. FranceFIFA ranking: 3➡️ (arrow depicts movement from our previous ranking)France outclassed Norway’s B-team to join Mexico as one of just two sides to have won all their group games. Ballon d’Or winner Dembele took advantage, scoring a hat-trick in the absence of manager Didier Deschamps, who missed the game because of the death of his mother but is expected to return for the knockouts.With Michael Olise playing in the No 10 role, on three assists and counting, along with Dembele, Kylian Mbappe and Desire Doue, their attack has looked unstoppable. They remain top of our rankings — and The Athletic’s live projection tool forecasts a 21 per cent chance of them winning the World Cup.Get free access to the most comprehensive World Cup coverage in The Athletic app2. ArgentinaFIFA ranking: 1➡️Lionel Messi is regarded by many as the greatest player of all time, but did we see this coming? Complete domination by the 39-year-old, who has now scored all five of Argentina’s goals in their two wins and became the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer after his double against Austria.The defence will be pleased too after consecutive clean sheets, though Cristian Romero’s substitution against Austria due to a knee injury is a concern.It might be beneficial for some of their other forward players to pick up form as Messi can’t win the World Cup single-handedly. Or can he?3. SpainFIFA ranking: 2➡️After starting their tournament with a draw against Cape Verde, Spain collected back-to-back wins once Lamine Yamal returned to the starting XI against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay to top the group.Their 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia was their most convincing, and against Uruguay they showed how might frustrate sides in the knockouts, being so comfortable in possession after taking a lead.They will play Austria or Algeria in the in the next round.4. BrazilFIFA ranking: 6➡️After their opening draw with Morocco, Brazil have gone from strength to strength, with two 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland.They have been comfortable letting the opposition have the ball and pouncing at the right moments, and have played with more of an edge since Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha came in up front against Haiti.Vinicius Jr is their star of the tournament, with four goals already, while Neymar made a substitute appearance against Scotland.Carlo Ancelotti’s side topped Group C — but their round-of-32 opponents, Japan, won’t be pushovers.5. NetherlandsFIFA ranking: 8➡️Ten goals in three games, with convincing wins over Sweden and Tunisia and a draw against Japan — the Netherlands made their group stage look pretty comfortable, with Brian Brobbey scoring three and Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville adding two each.But they now face a challenging round-of-32 opponent — Morocco on Monday in Monterrey. We will soon find out whether they, and Ronald Koeman’s coaching, stack up.Brian Brobbey scores the Netherlands’ second goal against Sweden (Molly Darlington/Getty Images)6. EnglandFIFA ranking: 4➡️A dull, underwhelming performance and result against lower-ranked opponents? England, you’re back! After the excitement, goals and thrilling attacking football of their 4-2 victory over Croatia, the 0-0 draw against Ghana has stopped everyone shouting: “It’s coming home.” Well, for a few days at least. Victory against Panama in their final group match will get England back on track as group winners.7. GermanyFIFA ranking: 10➡️Germany lost against Ecuador, but in fairness, they had already secured their spot as Group E winners, while Ecuador needed a win to progress. The worry is that they started with a near-enough strongest XI, before rotating with substitutes and buckling under the intensity.They take a drop in our rankings as the contenders above them are yet to lose a game, but Julian Nagelsmann’s team still made light work of Curacao and beat a capable Ivory Coast.Paraguay are their confirmed opponents in the round of 32, a match they should expect to win.8. MoroccoFIFA ranking: 7➡️So far, so good for Mohamed Ouahbi, who was hired as Morocco’s manager in March, having led the nation to victory at the Under-20 World Cup in 2025.In Group C, they went toe-to-toe with Brazil before beating Scotland and Haiti rather convincingly. Using Ismael Saibari to lead the line has proved an inspired choice — he has scored one goal in every group game.Their round-of-32 draw hasn’t been kind, though. They will be in Monterrey, facing another top 10 team in our rankings, the Netherlands.9. MexicoFIFA ranking: 13⬆️ 1The first team to collect three wins from three in the group stage. Mexico scored six goals and kept three clean sheets, beating the Czech Republic 3-0 with a rotated side on Wednesday.Several Mexico players caught the eye, including 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora and forward Julian Quinones, who has scored two goals.Winning Group A means they will stay in Mexico City for the round of 32 (and, if they make it through, the round of 16), with The Athletic’s live prediction tool forecasting a greater than 99 per cent chance of facing Ecuador.10. NorwayFIFA ranking: 31⬇️ 1Norway qualified with a game to spare after having no trouble scoring against Senegal and Iraq. Their fearsome Manchester City striker Haaland scored four goals in his first two World Cup games before being rested against France.They were perhaps caught off guard that France fielded the majority of their stars in that meeting. Norway’s reserves didn’t stand much of a chance, losing 4-1. It highlights a concern for the team’s lack of strength in depth, though their starters were able to rest.In an intriguing round-of-32 match, Norway will next face Ivory Coast.11. United StatesFIFA ranking: 17➡️The U.S. have been responsible for bringing great excitement to the tournament as one of the three co-hosts. Their positive and adventurous football has not been short of goals. But after rotating against Turkey, they lost some momentum, suffering a late 3-2 loss.Still, with an elite coach, Mauricio Pochettino, in the dugout, their fans are full of confidence entering the knockouts, asking, ‘Why not U.S.?’Facing Bosnia and Herzegovina in the next round, they will fancy their chances of reaching the last 16.12. ColombiaFIFA ranking: 14➡️A team of attacking talent and with willing runners aplenty, they have a 100 per cent record with two wins from two. Neither victory was wholly convincing, with a wobble against Uzbekistan and then an unnecessarily tight 1-0 victory over DR Congo, but Colombia have achieved their first aim of the tournament by progressing to the knockout stages.To do it with a game to spare takes the pressure off their lip-licking game with Portugal this weekend, but they’ll still want to top the group, which they can do with a draw.13. PortugalFIFA ranking: 5➡️Portugal put right the wrongs of their underwhelming opener against DR Congo with a much-needed 5-0 shellacking of Uzbekistan to get their tournament up and running.The fact Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice wasn’t just an historic moment (he became the first man to score in six different World Cups) but important to quell the incessant noise about his place in the side, at least for a few days.However, given how overawed and inexperienced the Uzbek defence was, any excitement at Portugal’s overall prospects should be tempered. Their clash with Colombia next up will tell us more.14. SwitzerlandFIFA ranking: 19➡️After starting with a draw against Qatar, Switzerland progressed to the knockout stages as Group B winners following victories over Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina. An encouraging sign has been the performances of 20-year-old Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi, who has breathed new life into the team with three goals.After going undefeated, they look likely to have a fairly kind landing in the next phase, with Iran (a 92 per cent chance) their most likely opponent in the round of 32.15. CroatiaFIFA ranking: 11➡️Survived a couple of real scares against Panama to edge a narrow 1-0 victory thanks to substitute Ante Budimir’s close-range finish.How far can Croatia’s golden-olden generation take them in this tournament? The signs in their opening two matches haven’t been great, but one thing we have learned from the finalists in 2018 and semi-finalists in 2022 is to never write them off.16. JapanFIFA ranking: 18➡️A likeable team who have impressed in the groups playing an egoless, exciting brand of football, their style was exemplified in their final game, a 1-1 draw with Sweden, in which they took off their captain after 39 minutes and scored a well-crafted team goal.Japan’s most impressive performance was the 4-0 win over Tunisia in their second group game. They will play Brazil in Houston in the round of 32, and not everyone would rule them out.17. BelgiumFIFA ranking: 9⬆️ 4After unconvincing performances against Egypt and Iran, Belgium still had enough quality to overwhelm New Zealand as their big-name forwards Leandro Trossard, Kevin de Bruyne, and Romelu Lukaku all got on the scoresheet in a 5-1 win.Their performances in the group stage suggest they are not as good as their FIFA ranking implies, but in the end they topped the group, setting up a round-of-32 match against South Korea (44 per cent probablity), Senegal (33 per cent), Algeria (13 per cent) or Austria (1o per cent).18. GhanaFIFA ranking: 73➡️It couldn’t have gone much better. Victory over Panama was brilliantly backed up with a 0-0 draw against England in a resolute, organised performance.They could even have won via sporadic, pacy threats on the counter and, if VAR hadn’t gone for a coffee, they might have had a penalty for Ezri Konsa’s foul on Prince Kwabena Adu.Four points from two games has already secured their progress to the knockout stages.19. CanadaFIFA ranking: 30➡️Canada can be happy with their work in the group stages. They emphatically earned their first men’s World Cup win with a 6-0 victory over Qatar as key player Jonathan David found form, scoring a hat-trick.Ismael Kone breaking his leg against Qatar was a dark cloud, but Canada still progressed in second place. They had the chance to finish top and remain on home turf for the round of 32, but lost to Switzerland.Their opponents for the next round at SoFi Stadium? South Africa. It could be a lot worse.20. EgyptFIFA ranking: 29⬇️ 3Egypt started the day top of Group G and took an early lead against Iran, but by the end they were on the ropes and lucky not to lose. The 1-1 draw dropped them to second on goal difference, after a win against New Zealand and another draw with Belgium. It is not disastrous for their round-of-32 outlook — they will be facing Australia. But it does mean they could meet Argentina in the last 16.21. Ivory CoastFIFA ranking: 33⬇️ 1With a 2-0 win over Curacao, Ivory Coast reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time. The level of their performances in the group phase shows promise to go further, with wingers Yan Diomande and Amad capable of troubling any defence.Their round-of-32 match-up will test that. They will face the runners-up of Group I, Norway.22. South KoreaFIFA ranking: 22➡️South Korea suffered defeat against South Africa in their final group game, but they should still progress to the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed teams.They made a promising start with a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, but didn’t score again in their second, a loss to Mexico, or third match.The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them a 44 per cent chance of making the round of 32, with Belgium their most likely opponent if they make it through.23. SwedenFIFA ranking: 38➡️After thrashing Tunisia and being thrashed by the Netherlands, Thursday’s 1-1 draw against Japan evens them out as a solid-looking team. Sweden have wrapped up their spot in the knockouts as one of the eight best third-placed teams — despite Anthony Elanga’s apparent confusion.Elanga’s curling strike in that Japan draw showed they have individuals capable of game-changing moments, along with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres. But they will need a big performance to get past Group I winners France in the next round.24. EcuadorFIFA ranking: 24➡️Ecuador’s victory over Germany took them through to the World Cup knockouts for the first time in 20 years. Had they not suffered a late defeat by the Ivory Coast, or been denied by Curacao goalkeeper Eloy Room’s masterclass, they might have finished higher than third in Group E.They have continued the defensive strength they showed in qualifying, which bodes well for the round of 32, where they have a greater than 99 per cent chance of facing Mexico.25. SenegalFIFA ranking: 15⬆️ 3The (stripped) African champions had a tough time in Group I, but are now confirmed to progress as one of the best third-place teams after thrashing Iraq 5-0.Senegal were competitive in games against France and Norway, but were prone to defensive errors and were played through too easily. They look more formidable going forward, but will hope goalkeeper Edouard Mendy recovers from a knee injury suffered against Norway.For the round of 32, their most likely opponent, as things stand, is England (43 per cent).26. AustraliaFIFA ranking: 27⬇️ 1Progression as Group D runners-up marks a solid effort from Australia, and two clean sheets from three games helped them do it.Despite disappointing against the United States, their highlight was the performance against Turkey, producing a 2-0 win with only 28 per cent possession in a breakout game for 20-year-old Watford forward Nestory Irankunda.They will have to channel this solidarity and cutting-edge in the knockout stages, where they will face the runners-up of Group G.27. AlgeriaFIFA ranking: 28➡️Algeria showed they are a threat from set pieces, scoring both goals from corners in a turnaround win against Jordan. This could help them hurt superior opposition from limited chances. Riyad Mahrez came back into the starting line-up and was a creative spark in open play.Their game against Austria on Sunday will now determine who goes through in second place from Group J, but three points puts them in with a chance of a third-place progression. They have a minus-two goal difference, though, so have work to do.28. AustriaFIFA ranking: 25⬆️ 1Ralf Rangnick tinkered with the starting line-up against Argentina, bringing Tottenham’s Kevin Danso into the back line and PSV’s Paul Wanner into midfield.The problem is that this team, despite having quality, doesn’t have prolific forwards or a formidable defence (conceding to Jordan). It is unclear where their real strength to hurt better teams lies.After Algeria’s win over Jordan, a meeting with them on Sunday will determine who progresses in second place in the group.29. Cape VerdeFIFA ranking: 67⬆️ 5Cape Verde reaching the knockouts on their World Cup debut is the biggest fairy tale of the tournament to date.After keeping out European champions Spain, earning goalkeeper Vozinha Instagram fame, and drawing 2-2 with Uruguay, they confirmed progression with a third point against Saudi Arabia to finish in second.The reward is a round-of-32 tie against holders Argentina. They couldn’t do it again, could they? Whatever happens in the knockout stages, these players have inspired a generation by making history.30. IranFIFA ranking: 20⬆️ 1Entering the tournament, all eyes were on the nation who have been in military conflict with one of the co-hosts, the United States. An unprecedented set of circumstances.Despite disrupted preparations and having to fly in and out of the U.S. hours before and after matches, a decision that was later reversed, Iran came within inches of beating Egypt to finish second in the group, scoring a ‘winner’ that was actually marginally offside, before later hitting the woodwork.In the end, the draw took them to three points and a goal difference of zero. This means they have a 92 per cent chance of reaching the knockouts, where they would play Switzerland.31. ParaguayFIFA ranking: 40⬇️ 1Paraguay are almost certain to qualify as one of the best third-place teams after earning their fourth point in a 0-0 draw with Australia.They started their tournament disappointingly against the co-hosts, thrashed 4-1 by the USA, but held onto a win against Turkey after Matias Galarza’s long-range strike two minutes in, despite Miguel Almiron being dismissed at the end of the first half for covering his mouth while speaking to an opponent, the first ever red card for this offence.Overall, they have not looked like a team that will threaten too much in the knockout stages, other than frustrate opponents and be defensively solid, particularly as they are facing Germany.32. Bosnia and HerzegovinaFIFA ranking: 64➡️Unlike the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t waste their chance after progressing through the European qualification play-offs, knocking out Italy in the final. A 3-1 win against Qatar earned their place in the World Cup’s round of 32, adding to the point earned against Canada in their opening draw.Having finished third in Group B, they are set to face another host, the United States, in San Francisco next.33. South AfricaFIFA ranking: 61➡️After South Africa’s poor defeat in their opener against Mexico, few would have predicted the turnaround that has followed — and the big jump in our rankings.Manager Hugo Broos has tinkered with his line-up throughout the group stage, including dropping Burnley’s Lyle Foster after the 2-0 Mexico loss, and the side looked more threatening on the break against South Korea on Wednesday in a dramatic 1-0 victory.As Group A runners-up, they progressed to the knockouts for the first time and their round-of-32 opponent is another host nation — they will face Canada in Los Angeles.34. DR Congo⬆️ 4FIFA ranking: 46Again gave a good account of themselves against star-studded opposition, following up their shock 1-1 draw against Portugal with a narrow 1-0 defeat by Colombia. Defensively they look pretty handy and always carry a threat on the break through Yoane Wissa.Victory against Uzbekistan this weekend surely puts them through to the knockout stage with four points.35. ScotlandFIFA ranking: 41➡️Scotland’s job in their final group game was to avoid a heavy defeat, so they left the game disappointed after a 3-0 loss. They were allowed possession by Brazil but made decisive errors at the back, and were punished.Despite beating Haiti in their opening game, they only scored one goal in the group stages and have looked relatively flat, while Scott McTominay has not got going.Their hopes of progression lie in other nations’ hands and are becoming increasingly slimmer. The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them less than 1 per cent chance of reaching the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.36. UzbekistanFIFA ranking: 50⬆️ 4After a good showing against Colombia, Uzbekistan wilted against Portugal and Ronaldo, defending with naivety in a humbling 5-0 defeat that had star player Abdukodir Khusanov in tears at full time.Uzbekistan were not expected to earn a point from their two opening matches, but with their confidence and goal difference both having taken a hammering, they now need to beat DR Congo and get lucky with results elsewhere to progress as a third-placed team.It looks like a tall order.The eliminated teams37. New ZealandFIFA ranking: 85➡️ 1We will remember New Zealand at this World Cup for breakout star Elijah Just, who scored three goals, and for those Chris Wood touches in the first game against Iran.After that first game, they were overwhelmed by the quality of both Egypt and Belgium, losing comprehensively to both.But they played a part in their first World Cup since 2010, including their own viral sensation in Tim Payne. Their future goal will remain the same: reaching the knockouts for a first time.38. TurkeyFIFA ranking: 23⬆️ 4Possibly the most underwhelming team compared to their pre-tournament expectations at this year’s World Cup. Most would have predicted Turkey to progress ahead of Australia and Paraguay. Instead, they were eliminated with a game to spare.They saved face in their final match, scoring their first goals and earning a 3-2 win against the United States, but it was too late to matter.