England’s place in the World Cup knockout stages is already assured — but the Group L leaders could still slip off top spot following their final game on Saturday.Thomas Tuchel’s side were scintillating against Croatia in an opening 4-2 win but then frustrated in a 0-0 draw with Ghana. Their task now looks pretty simple: victory over Panama would see them win the group, so long as they also maintain a better goal difference than Ghana’s should they beat Croatia.The Athletic’s live projection tool forecasts an 84 per cent chance for England to finish top and a 15 per cent chance of them finishing second.But which offers an (in theory) easier path through the knockout rounds?Get free access to the most comprehensive World Cup coverage in The Athletic appWhat if England finish top?If England win their group, it will mean avoiding the side of the World Cup knockout bracket where Spain, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Morocco are already set.Top Group L and England will play their round-of-32 game in Atlanta on Wednesday, July 1. Their opponents would be one of the best third-placed teams from Group I, J or K.As of Saturday morning, the two most likely possible opponents, according to our projection tool, would be Senegal (43 per cent) or DR Congo (36 per cent).Although England would be favourites against either of those teams, Senegal might be a more preferable match-up as they are not as defensively-minded as DR Congo. Senegal beat Iraq 5-0 in their final group game on Friday, but they lost 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, while DR Congo held Portugal to a draw. Against Ghana, we saw England struggle against a stubborn defensive setup.