Researchers at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, have developed a new calculator that estimates a person's risk of developing serious muscle disorders from statins. The tool could help patients and clinicians make more informed decisions about using these widely prescribed medications to prevent heart attacks and strokes.
Published in The Lancet Digital Health, the research behind the calculator found that more than 98% of people identified by their GPs as eligible for statin treatment were predicted to be at low risk of serious muscle disorders over the next decade, despite concerns about side effects remaining a common barrier to treatment.
The study also highlighted a substantial treatment gap. More than 60% of people eligible for statin treatment were not taking statins, despite some being at high risk of heart attack or stroke. The researchers believe the calculator could support treatment discussions by providing patient-specific estimates of risk, rather than relying solely on population averages or general concerns about side effects.
Model development
The new calculator, available via Oxford University Innovation software store, is based on a clinical prediction model developed and validated using anonymized health records from more than 5.6 million people registered with GP practices across England. The researchers used data from more than 1.7 million people to develop the model and a further 3.9 million people to test its accuracy.
