Serena Williams is making her return to Wimbledon after nearly four years away from the sport. While her comeback has generated plenty of buzz, she isn’t expected to go far at the All England Club.The Wimbledon draw took place on Friday, and the 23-time Grand Slam winner learned of her first-round opponent — Australian Maya Joint, ranked No. 53 in the world.The sportsbooks peg Joint as the favorite to win. DraftKings has Joint at -157 with Serena at +124. That’s far from lopsided. The implied odds are giving Williams a better than 40 percent chance of winning the match. The 20-year-old Joint made her main draw debut at a Grand Slam at the 2024 U.S. Open, two years after Serena’s previous singles match.
Of course, even the sportsbooks are largely guessing. The match between Williams and Joint will receive more attention than any other, women or men, in the first round.Williams has been gearing up for a return in recent months and weeks, first entering the doping testing pool to allow for a comeback. Her first action was in doubles at the Queen’s Club Championships a couple weeks ago. She and Victoria Mboko won their first-round match before having to withdraw in the next round because of an injury Mboko suffered while playing singles.The following week, Serena paired with Karolína Muchová at the Berlin Tennis Open. The pair lost 6-4, 6-4 in the first round.Who will Serena play at Wimbledon?Williams will play with her sister Venus Williams in the doubles draw at Wimbledon, but she has not played singles in her return yet, so it’s difficult to judge her current level. For now, Williams is taking on the role of underdog against Joint.For a player not favored in her first-round match, Serena’s odds to win the tournament are actually not that long. Williams is 33-to-1 on BetMGM, 40-to-1 on DraftKings and 55-to-1 on FanDuel. Only 12 players on BetMGM have shorter odds to win Wimbledon.The sportsbooks appear to be covering themselves from a rush of Serena fans placing bets on her. Her true odds in their internal numbers are likely to be far longer than that. For comparison, Joint is 500-to-1 to win Wimbledon on DraftKings.There’s an easy argument to be made that Williams’ upside is much greater than Joint’s. If the 44-year-old looks anything like her peak, she could be a real contender, or at least a contender to make a run, though it doesn’t seem likely we will see that in Williams’ first singles tournament back from a nearly four-year retirement.BetMGM has Williams at 11-to-1 to win her quarter of the draw and make the semifinals. Her quarter includes defending champion Iga Świątek.Świątek and this year’s French Open champion, Mirra Andreeva, are both 9-to-1 to win Wimbledon. Only favorite Aryna Sabalenka (4-to-1) and Elena Rybakina (13-to-2) have shorter odds.On the men’s side, Jannik Sinner is an overwhelming favorite at -175 with Carlos Alcaraz still out with an injury.Jun 26, 2026Connections: Sports EditionSpot the pattern. Connect the termsFind the hidden link between sports terms
